What SoFi Technologies Holders Got Wrong Before The Slide

SoFi Technologies has been busy reshaping its fintech footprint, from acquiring PrimaryBid’s assets to deepen retail access to IPOs to rolling out products like SoFiUSD and AI-powered investing tools. If you had acted on that story of expansion at the start of 2026 and bought in, the financial outcome would have looked very different to the headlines. Holding SoFi Technologies from the start of the year would have meant a 39.0% loss, including dividends. The real question now is whether the recent surge in blockchain and capital markets initiatives can support a more durable earnings profile than the last cycle delivered.

SoFi Technologies is not the only name tied to this theme. Zero in on 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and compare how each one is priced.

The Two SoFi Technologies Stories Investors Had To Weigh

The shares cost US$26.18 at the start of the period, and investors in SoFi Technologies were choosing between two sharply different stories about what that price implied.

The bullish view argued that a Fair Value of US$30, effectively the price implied if its upbeat assumptions played out, reflected SoFi’s push to remake digital banking with AI, blockchain and its Galileo and Technisys infrastructure. Supporters leaned on expectations that a capital light loan platform and an expanding SoFi Money ecosystem could lift margins and open new fee streams.

The more cautious camp saw Fair Value closer to US$14, given assumptions of 15.3% revenue growth, a 7.3% profit margin and an 80.2x future P/E. That camp focused on potential pressure on net interest margin, tighter regulation of digital finance and the risk that cross selling across the app could eventually lose momentum.

What The Results Changed For The SoFi Technologies Thesis

SoFi Technologies delivered Q3 2026 revenue of US$1.37b and net income of US$240.989m, up from US$952.401m and US$139.392m a year earlier, with net margin improving from 14.6% to 17.6%. That shift in both scale and profitability clearly leaned toward the optimistic case that assumed a richer earnings engine, even as earlier tech platform revenue pressures kept questions alive.

The lesson for any fintech is simple. When a bullish story leans on margin expansion, you test it against reported net margin and absolute profit, not just top line growth or product launch headlines.

What You Would Be Paying For In SoFi Technologies Today

Today SoFi Technologies trades at US$16.75, after a 39.0% loss from the start of the year. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price and rests on SoFi being priced like a traditional lender while trying to operate as something broader.

That view leans on SoFi as a combined consumer super-app and infrastructure provider. For the recent fall to look like an opportunity rather than a warning, a buyer would need confidence that this dual model can keep attracting users and external partners without eroding economics.

"SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) has fundamentally solved this. Currently trading around $18.90 per share (as of March 2026), the broader stock market is incorrectly pricing SoFi as just another traditional, vulnerable bank. In reality, SoFi is a financial super-app for consumers, while simultaneously building the background technology that powers other financial companies."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

Find Your Own Contrarian Opportunity

This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 27% below our estimate - supplies testing gear to utilities and defense customers as grids digitize.
• Company 2 - 38% below our estimate - expands device trade in and refurbishment as subsidies and eco focused consumers grow.
• Company 3 - 19% below our estimate - grows franchised and owned teahouses while shifting volume toward overseas outlets.

Those are three of them. See the full list of 29 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

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