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Medtronic (MDT) Stock Looks Undervalued Despite Its 49% Three Year Run

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Medtronic shares have delivered a 48.6% return over the past three years, and with the stock recently closing at US$97.11, investors are asking whether that rise is properly supported by the cash the business can generate over time. Strong headlines around new cardiac technologies help the story, but the real test is how those products feed into long term cash flows.

  • The 48.6% three year return puts real weight on the question of whether Medtronic's current share price lines up with the cash it is expected to produce for shareholders.
  • Recent positive real world data for the Sphere-9 catheter, PulseSelect PFA system and new Vitalis pacemaker portfolio may support expectations for future procedure volumes and device adoption, which matters for the timing and durability of future cash flows.
  • If you'd rather focus on earnings, this one's for you. See what Medtronic's 22.7x P/E says about the price.

The issue now is whether Medtronic's current valuation is adequately backed by the intrinsic value suggested by its projected cash flows.

If you want to test the same cash flow question you are asking of Medtronic against a wider set of ideas, take a look at 30 high quality undervalued stocks.

Does Medtronic Look Undervalued on Cash Flow?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model here focuses on the cash Medtronic can return to shareholders over time. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $6.1b, and the forecast set points to growing free cash flows through the next decade, then easing into more muted growth as the business matures in the model.

That pattern means the intrinsic value from the cash flow model comes out modestly above the current share price of $97.11. The recent APHRS 2026 data for the Sphere-9 catheter and PulseSelect PFA system helps explain why the market is willing to pay a higher price for Medtronic today, although the DCF still suggests some upside based on the projected cash generation. Find out what Medtronic could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

The Medtronic Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Narratives pick up where the Medtronic valuation puzzle leaves off. They spell out which assumptions about Medtronic's future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today's price, and they live on Simply Wall St's Community page. Each one treats fair value as a thesis you can track over time rather than a single snapshot that never gets revisited.

Medtronic community views split between a cardiovascular and robotics powered upside story and a more restrained take that leans on income and technical signals.

Bull case: 7% undervalued

"The separation of the MiniMed diabetes business, which carries structurally lower margins and higher R&D intensity, together with SKU rationalization and design to cost programs, is expected to move Medtronic toward higher gross and operating margins and support faster EPS growth once the spin off is fully reflected in reported results…"

Discover why this Narrative puts Medtronic at 7% undervalued.

Bear case: 7% overvalued

"Medtronic plc recently acquired Scientia Vascular to expand its neurovascular technology portfolio…"

Explore why this Narrative puts Medtronic at 7% overvalued.

Before acting on Medtronic’s valuation, weigh who is steering the ship

Price targets and cash flow models only tell part of the story, because the people setting Medtronic’s priorities and their incentives can tilt outcomes in ways the numbers here do not address. See who runs Medtronic and how they are paid.