GCC, S.A.B. de C.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
GCC, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GCC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.7% to Mex$171 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.18, some 38% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$433m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from GCC. de's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.64b in 2027. This reflects a meaningful 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to US$1.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.09 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for GCC. de
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at Mex$251, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GCC. de at Mex$299 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$217. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of GCC. de'shistorical trends, as the 6.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 7.2% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that GCC. de is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GCC. de. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for GCC. de going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the GCC. de Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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