After nine years of delay, Tesla (TSLA.US) Semi finally took orders and began mass production

The Zhitong Finance App learned that nine years after the 2017 press conference, Tesla (TSLA.US)'s Semi electric heavy truck is finally on its own mass production line: in September of this year, the company built its first dedicated Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, and orders from ZET SCALE, Einride, WatTeV, QX Logistics and IMC Logistics are on the list. Also this week, a Semi caught fire on Interstate 880 in California and the one-way lane was closed for about 10 hours, adding a question mark to this newly started climbing curve.

The level of production is still uncertain

The Sparks factory is close to Tesla's largest battery factory, the Nevada Gigafactory, and covers an area of about 167,000 square meters. Dan Priestley, head of the Semi project, said, “This is not an ordinary assembly plant, but the closest we can do to 'raw materials in, finished products'.”

The design production capacity given by Priestley is 50,000 vehicles per year; the Semi has installed an annual production capacity of 25,000 vehicles, as listed in Tesla's report for the third quarter of October 21, and the company has not disclosed the actual production volume so far. The first truck went offline in April, and a mass production delivery event was held on September 24; mass-produced car batteries have been switched from 2170 batteries manufactured from outside to 4680 cells produced in-house.

Price: Rely on operating expenses

Semi's “reported price” is about $26 million for the 325-mile standard version and $29 million for the 500-mile long range version, not including subsidies; new diesel tractors in the same class usually cost between $150,000 and $200,000. It should be clarified that Tesla has never officially announced the Semi price; the $290,000 comes from a customer offer reported by Electrek in February of this year.

The price difference is covered by operating costs: the long-range version has a nominal range of 500 miles and an energy consumption of 1.7 kWh/mile at a full load of 82,000 pounds; the comparison shown by Tesla at mass production activities showed that diesel heavy trucks cost about $0.50 to $0.80 per mile, and the Semi can stabilize at $0.20 to $0.25.

On the competitor's side, Frehner's ECascadia has a nominal battery life of up to 230 miles, a peak charge of 270 kilowatts, and the Volvo VNR Electric is 275 miles and 250 kW; PCAR's Kenworth and Peterbilt are also selling electric models. Semi is leading in battery life and charging power, but all three have products and ready-made after-sales networks that have been on the market for several years.

A two-tier limited edition of 2,500 cars

The biggest one came from the ZET SCALE Alliance on September 22 — 2,500 vehicles, known as the largest single purchase in the history of North American electric class 8 trucks. Microsoft and Pepsi are reportedly behind it.

However, this order has two limitations: Tesla is the “primary OEM” (primary OEM) rather than exclusive; Kenworth, Volvo and RIDE are the same secondary suppliers; the alliance also did not specify how many of the 2,500 cars would land on Semi. In other words, this is a procurement framework, not an order locked in to Tesla. Of the remaining orders, Einride ordered 500 vehicles in August, WatteV placed 370 units in May (mainly for the Auckland Port Short Shuttle), and IMC Logistics ordered 50 vehicles this month.

Sudden Collision

On Tuesday local time, a Semi caught fire in the I-880 southbound lane near Hayward, California. There was no collision, and no other vehicles were involved. The driver evacuated safely and told the patrol car “just like that” and didn't know the reason. The California Highway Patrol sealed I-880 in both directions for about 10 hours on the grounds of “risk of harmful chemical smoke”; the patrol initially warned that the battery might continue to burn for 15 to 18 hours, and actual disposal was faster than estimated. The identity of the vehicle operator was not confirmed, and Tesla did not respond. The reason is still under investigation.

This is the second Semi fire in two years to shut down California interstate highways. In August 2024, a Tesla owned Semi caught fire near I-80 Emigrant Gap. The NTSB later determined that the battery was ignited after the car broke out of the road surface and hit an outline mark and tree. The fire used about 50,000 gallons of water, and the driveway was closed for 15 hours. The difference is that there was no collision, so the investigation focused on the vehicle itself — the battery pack, high voltage system, drive unit, or tire/brake fire spread.

According to the American Fire Service, the US fire department handled an average of 15,462 major truck fires (about 42 per day) from 2018 to 2022, and the vast majority of the fleet was diesel; Tesla claims that its vehicles caught fire every 140 million miles. However, for a model that has just entered mass production and is still small, a no-collision fire itself is a high-weight sample.

Damo: The account is based on the software subscription

Institutions' interest in Semi is more on the software side. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco estimated in a September research report that, based on an autonomous driving subscription fee of $0.85 to $1.00 per mile and driving 18,000 miles per month, an autonomous vehicle could generate $12,000 to $18,000 in software revenue per month; if 82,000 vehicles were deployed in 2040, software revenue alone would reach $17 billion (excluding vehicle and charging revenue). According to this, Damo raised the target price for the optimistic scenario from $820 to $840, maintaining the benchmark scenario at $400, and the rating “on par with the market.” The premise of this logic is the implementation of autonomous driving — Musk says the goal is to provide autonomous driving semi in 2027, which is still an option value.