Berenberg: Heineken Guidance 'Conservative' After Q3 Results Topped Expectations

02:47 AM EDT, 10/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Heineken's (HEIA.AS) full-year 2026 outlook is "looking conservative" after the Dutch brewer posted better-than-expected third-quarter results, Berenberg said in a Thursday note. For the three months ended Sept. 30, Heineken's net revenue totaled 8.09 billion euros, above the consensus of 7.98 billion euros. It also recorded organic growth of 4.6% in net revenue and 3.9% in consolidated volume, against the expectations of 3.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Still, the company continues to expect 2% to 6% organic growth in operating profit for 2026, as it assumes a "broadly unchanged" consumer environment in most of its markets. "We fully acknowledge Heineken's prudent approach to guidance, especially given regional consumer uncertainties. However, the operational momentum achieved year-to-date suggests that the top-end of the guidance is achievable. Delivering at the upper end of the company's FY 2026 organic operating profit guidance range of 2-6% implies a 5.6% growth rate in H2, feasible in our view after delivering 4.5% organic net sales growth in Q3 already," analysts said. Consequently, the research firm raised its 2026 organic operating profit growth estimate to 6% from the previous 4.6%. "As volume growth improves, we believe that Heineken should be capable of consistently delivering high-single-digit earnings growth, which is not reflected in its EV/EBIT valuation of 11.9x for FY 2027," Berenberg added. The stock's buy rating and price target of 101 euros were left unchanged.