For Essential Properties Realty Trust, the core belief is that a high occupancy, long lease net lease portfolio can keep throwing off predictable rent while management continues to find sale leaseback deals at attractive yields. The new 4.375% 2032 notes and the exchangeable senior notes mainly matter if they help fund that pipeline without letting leverage or interest costs crowd out earnings.
The bigger swing factor in the near term is how much external investment Essential Properties Realty Trust can execute at solid spreads while refinancing older, cheaper debt that could dilute AFFO. The key risk is that refinancing and dilution could combine with any slowdown in acquisition volume, which would make earnings per share growth harder to defend.
The most relevant nearby data point is the third quarter 2026 earnings update. Sales for the quarter were US$157.76 million with revenue of US$168.67 million, both above the prior year period, while net income for the quarter was US$60.16 million compared to US$65.62 million a year earlier. Basic EPS from continuing operations was US$0.28 versus US$0.33.
Across the first nine months of 2026, Essential Properties Realty Trust reported sales of US$458.27 million and revenue of US$489.36 million, both above the same period in 2025, with net income of US$194.24 million versus US$184.94 million. That mix of higher top line and softer recent EPS frames the current catalyst and risk balance, with execution on acquisitions and funding now under closer scrutiny.
Essential Properties Realty Trust is currently modeled by analysts to reach US$915.7 million in revenue and US$375.7 million in earnings by 2029. This assumes revenue growth of 14.2% per year and an earnings increase of about US$109.1 million from US$266.6 million today.
Uncover why Essential Properties Realty Trust's fair value indicates a 31% potential upside to its current price that could narrow quickly.
Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide band, from about US$29.53 to roughly US$92.77 per share, which shows how far opinions on Essential Properties Realty Trust can stretch. Set those community views alongside refinancing risk, potential dilution and the new 4.375% notes, then weigh several contrasting viewpoints before deciding how this setup fits your expectations.
Explore 3 other Essential Properties Realty Trust fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just $29.53.
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
Once you have a view on Essential Properties Realty Trust, it can help to compare it with other businesses that share similar qualities in balance sheet strength, income potential or perceived mispricing. The Simply Wall St Screener is a quick way to surface those candidates without sifting through hundreds of tickers manually.
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