Zhongyuan Securities: Poor market performance in the industry, PV further promotes anti-domestic investment initiatives
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongyuan Securities released a research report stating that the net market ratio LF of the Electric Equipment Index (CITIC) is 2.79 times higher, at the level of 34.25%. The net market ratio of the Power Equipment Index (CITIC) is 1.84 times the LF, which is at the 20.08% level. Maintain the “Simultaneous Market” industry investment rating and focus on the opportunities brought about by reversal of the difficult trough sector (such as photovoltaics) and the demand side of new quality productivity.
The main views of Zhongyuan Securities are as follows:
The performance of the power equipment and new energy industry in September lagged behind other industries
The performance of the power equipment and new energy industry in September was second-to-last among the first-class industries, only higher than the non-ferrous metals industry. Among the four sub-sectors of the electrical equipment sector, only the motor sector rose 2.12%, while wind power was the highlight in the power equipment sector, which bucked the trend and rose 5.82%. Leading photovoltaic companies such as Tongwei and GCL held a closed-door conference in Hangzhou against internal controls.
Leading domestic photovoltaic companies such as Tongwei and GCL held a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou to further promote anti-domestic industry initiatives
The conference further formed an implementation plan for production capacity restrictions. It was proposed to promote enterprises to independently coordinate and actively suppress their own production capacity according to total market demand through a market-based adjustment mechanism, and establish a clear price bottom line in the silicon and component sector. A number of leading silicon companies have agreed that the average cost of silicon, including tax and corresponding sales price, shall not be less than 43,000 yuan per ton.
In September, the electricity consumption of the entire society was 899.7 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.2%. The electricity consumption of the charging and switching service industry and Internet data services maintained rapid growth
In September, China's large-scale industrial power generation was 829.36 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 1.2%. By the end of September, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 4.132 billion kilowatts, an increase of 11.2%. The main contribution to the growth rate comes from wind power and solar energy.
China's exports of major electrical equipment maintained a good momentum in September '26, and there was an acceleration trend
In September, transformer exports amounted to US$1,149 million, an increase of 23.74%. Wire and cable exports amounted to US$4.254 billion, an increase of 59.03%. The export value of high-voltage switches and control devices and the export value of low-voltage switches and control devices were US$759 million and US$4.584 million respectively, up 56.49% and 43.97% respectively; copper and aluminum prices continued to rise.
The average monthly price of polysilicon GFEX futures in September was 36,993 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.8%. Prices remained relatively low during the year
The average monthly price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm) and N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm) was 1.01 yuan/piece and 1.15 yuan/piece, down 22.9% and 30.72% respectively; TOPCON batteries (182 mm) (210mm) were 0.3 yuan/watt and 0.29 yuan/watt, respectively, down 3.23% and 3.33% year-on-year. The average monthly price of N-type TOPCON double glass modules (182 mm) was 0.72 yuan/watt, an increase of 4.35%.
Risk warning: declining demand for power equipment, fluctuating export demand; overcapacity and pressure to remove inventories; volume “” poor implementation of policies and poor corporate profitability; rising raw material costs; international trade frictions and tariff barriers.