Cathay Pacific Haitong: Significant differentiation in the allocation of individual coal stocks maintains the industry's “gain” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that according to the fund's 2026 three-quarter report, the share of the top ten heavy position allocations of coal sector funds rebounded month-on-month, and individual stock allocations were clearly divided; the increase and decrease of shares was divided between Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect and Hong Kong Stock Connect. Maintain the industry's “gain” rating. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, with the phased release of demand for winter storage and replenishment in the north and the gradual advancement of coal mine production and production increases, the core contradiction in the coal market is shifting from early supply contraction to a game between supply restoration and demand acceptance. The bank believes that in the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual progress of increasing production and supply on the policy side and improving demand in winter.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Maintaining the industry's “gain” rating

The market in the third quarter paid off as scheduled, and the fourth quarter focused on the game between supply repair and demand acceptance. The inflection point previously determined by the bank in the coal sector was realized as scheduled in the third quarter. The sector ushered in a major upward trend. The core point was that the market gradually realized that there had been a substantial contraction on the supply side. Tight supply and demand drove coal prices to continue to strengthen, and hit a new high since 2024. Entering the fourth quarter, with coal prices rising rapidly, the policy side's efforts to stabilize production and supply continued to increase, successively driving the export of coal from Xinjiang, the resumption of production in temporarily suspended coal mines, and increased production and supply in Shanxi. The supply side ushered in marginal restoration. The moment of maximum pressure on supply and demand in the early stages is over. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, with the phased release of demand for winter storage and replenishment in the north and the gradual advancement of coal mine production and production increases, the core contradiction in the coal market is shifting from early supply contraction to a game between supply restoration and demand acceptance. The bank believes that in the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual progress of increasing production and supply on the policy side and improving demand in winter. In terms of investment proposals, we continue to recommend Shaanxi Coal, Yankuang Energy, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy; Huaibei Mining and Pingmei shares are recommended for the coking coal sector.

The share of heavy coal holdings in public funds rebounded in 2026Q3, with significant differentiation in individual stock allocations

The coal index rose 19.29% in the third quarter. During the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 12.49%, and the sector outperformed 31.78%; 2026Q3 public funds held a total of 26 coal stocks, and the top ten coal stocks accounted for 0.46% of the market value of fund stock investment rose from 0.31% in 2026Q2 to 0.46%, up 0.15% from the previous month. The top five major coal stocks are China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, Shaanxi Coal, Lu'an Huaneng and Xinji Energy. Fund holdings accounted for 0.87%, 5.64%, 2.25%, 7.93%, and 12.03% of tradable shares, respectively.

Measured by month-on-month changes (the number of heavily held fund shares at the end of 2026Q3 compared to the end of 2026Q2), the top five companies that increased their holdings were Xinji Energy, Yankuang Energy, Orchid Science and Technology, Haohua Energy, and Yunmei Energy. Their shareholding ratio in tradable shares increased by 3.11, 1.93, 1.26, 1.01, and 0.76 percentage points, respectively; the top five companies that reduced their holdings were Jizhong Energy, Pingmei Co., Ltd., Jiang Tungsten Equipment, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, and Jinjin Coal Control, respectively. 1.23 and 1.17 percentage points. Fund allocations showed clear differentiation in the third quarter. The holdings of Xinji Energy and Yankuang Energy were increased, and Jizhong Energy and Heping Coal shares were reduced; in 2026Q3, Shanghai Stock Connect concentrated on increasing their holdings of Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, Shanghai Energy, Xindazhou A, Orchid Kechuang, and Jizhong Energy, which accounted for 2.73%, 1.46%, 0.95%, 0.90% and 0.79% of total share capital, respectively; holdings were reduced by 1.68%, 1.00%, respectively 0.71%, 0.69%, and 0.32%.

At the end of the period, the shares held by Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect were concentrated in Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, Shanmei International, Shanghai Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Lanhua Science and Technology, accounting for 5.11%, 2.30%, 2.20%, 1.73% and 1.68% of the total share capital, respectively; Hong Kong Stock Connect's 2026Q3 final holdings were concentrated in Yankuang Energy, China Coal Energy, Jiutai Bangda Energy, Shougang Resources and China Shenhua, accounting for 19.42%, 12.81%, 11.50%, 11.50% and 10.84% of the total share capital, respectively.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic growth fell short of expectations, imported coal entered on a large scale, and supply was released in excess of expectations.