Northeast Securities: Upgrading energy efficiency standards drive the growth of the motor industry Amorphous motors are an important development direction
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that the growth of the motor industry mainly comes from upgrading energy efficiency standards, expanding downstream demand, upgrading technology, and updating stock equipment. Although there are system differences in standards in major markets around the world, the overall direction is the same, which is to push inefficient products out of the market by increasing minimum energy efficiency requirements and create demand for high-efficiency products such as IE4 and IE5. The difficulty of traditional silicon steel motors to further improve efficiency is increasing, and amorphous motors are an important development direction for motors.
The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:
Upgrading energy efficiency standards is an important factor driving the growth of the motor industry
The growth of the motor industry is mainly due to the upgrading of energy efficiency standards, expansion of downstream demand, technology upgrades, and stock equipment updates. Major global markets continue to raise the minimum energy efficiency requirements for motors, and policy upgrades and stock replacement are jointly driving the growth in demand for high-efficiency motors. The policy push not only increases the share of high-efficiency motors in new machine sales, but also accelerates the elimination of inefficient motors in stock. Technology upgrades are mainly carried out along the two paths of efficiency and intelligence. High-efficiency motors reduce losses by optimizing electromagnetic design, materials, and manufacturing processes, while smart motors enable condition monitoring, fault diagnosis, and operation optimization through sensors, control algorithms, and the Internet of Things. Stock replacement is another important driver of growth. A large number of industrial motors have been in operation for more than 10 years. With equipment updates and energy efficiency standards, old and inefficient motors have gradually entered a centralized replacement cycle. Compared to simply relying on demand for new equipment, stock replacement can form a more stable long-term market
Motor energy efficiency standards are an important policy tool to promote technological upgrading
The IEC60034 series of standards forms an important foundation for international motor energy efficiency classification, and divides motor efficiency into IE1 to IE5 levels. As energy efficiency standards continue to improve, IE4 is gradually becoming an important market threshold for high-efficiency industrial motors, while IE5 represents a higher level of efficiency requirements. The EU is leading the way in regulating the energy efficiency of motors. EU eco-design regulations continue to expand the coverage of high-efficiency motors and gradually raise the minimum energy efficiency requirements for industrial motors, while incorporating variable frequency drive systems into energy efficiency supervision. The US mainly uses the NEMA standard system. NemaPremium plans to continue to increase requirements for high-efficiency motors, and the US Department of Energy is also promoting new energy efficiency requirements for industrial motors to reduce long-term industrial electricity consumption. China has established a motor energy efficiency standard system with GB18613-2020 as the core, and continues to improve energy efficiency limits. Permanent magnet synchronous motors are subject to energy efficiency restrictions by standards such as GB30253. Although there are system differences in standards in major markets around the world, the overall direction is the same, which is to push inefficient products out of the market by increasing minimum energy efficiency requirements and create demand for high-efficiency products such as IE4 and IE5.
The difficulty of traditional silicon steel motors to further improve efficiency is increasing
After a long period of development, traditional silicon steel motors have formed a mature material, manufacturing and supply chain system, and are currently the mainstream technical route for industrial motors. However, as energy efficiency requirements continue to rise, the difficulty of further improving efficiency is increasing. In terms of material properties, reducing losses in silicon steel mainly depends on improving magnetic properties, reducing strip thickness, and optimizing alloy composition. Reducing silicon steel sheets from 0.50 mm to 0.35 mm can significantly reduce high-frequency eddy current loss, but the thinner the material, the higher the requirements for rolling, shearing and processing accuracy, and the difficulty and cost of manufacturing also increase.
Amorphous motors are an important development direction for motors
Compared with traditional silicon steel motors, amorphous motors can already form a clear efficiency advantage. At present, the overall efficiency of amorphous motors has improved compared to traditional silicon steel motors. The specific increase depends on factors such as motor power, operating speed, load rate, working frequency, iron core structure, and amorphous material usage ratio. According to public data from Bomai Licheng, its amorphous stator IPM motor test results showed that the motor efficiency increased by more than 3% after using amorphous materials.
Risk warning: Amorphous material costs and industrialization risks; alternative technology competition risks; downstream demand and marketing risks; risk that India's initiation of anti-dumping investigations on imported amorphous strip and silicon steel may affect demand for corresponding commodities