US Yields in a Final Fifth Wave, Gold Could Still Dip to 3,500 Before Metals Turn

We recorded this update from a quiet beach in Mallorca. Back in June, from Greece, we talked about gold, inflation and US yields. Since then, US yields have moved pretty much as expected, while gold and silver are trading around the lows of the year.

Gold: On the monthly chart we see a completed wave (III) at the highs and the current pullback as a wave (IV) correction. US yields could already be in the late stages of their advance, so gold may stabilize soon, but we would not rule out a deeper dip in metals first. The wave (IV) area sits between 3,523 and 3,124, and we see 3,500 or so as a very interesting level for gold.

Gold Elliott Wave chart, October 28 2026. Charts by TradingView

US yields: On the weekly 10-year yield chart we see the late stages of a fifth wave advance. Wave (IV) unfolded as a triangle, and the rise out of it is developing in five smaller waves, with wave 3 in place around 5.19%. That leaves room for a wave 4 pullback and one more push higher in wave 5 before a bigger top. The 10-year T-note futures show the mirror image, a wave (V) decline after a (IV) triangle.

US 10-year yield Elliott Wave chart, October 28 2026. Charts by TradingView

Silver: Silver is in a complex W-X-Y wave IV correction. Wave (C) of Y can still extend into the 54.50 to 45.63 support area, and we see 45 to 50 as an interesting zone for stabilization. The wave X high at 89.37 is the level that matters above.

S&P 500: December futures are in a rising wedge and testing the lower line, with 7,839.75 as resistance and 7,671.25 the first level below. A downside break could open the door for a sell-off. In past shocks such as 2008, 2020, 2022 and 2025, gold made its low before the S&P 500, so gold can be the first market to stabilize.

Intermarket view: Gold tends to pause when the Fed is on pause or hiking. Another push in 2-year yields toward the prior high around 5.275% would bring us closer to a potential reversing point, and that is when opportunities in gold and silver could show up.

Bottom line: We think 2027 could bring some very interesting turning points in metals. Even if we see more weakness first, we are watching for a potentially important bullish reversal, so patience matters.

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Trade well,

WaveTraders team