Berenberg Expects Only One More ECB Rate Hike in 2026 After Holding in October

01:22 PM EDT, 10/29/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg forecasts only one more 25-basis-point rate hike in December from the European Central Bank, as opposed to the two or three further increases priced in by markets. "The ECB kept its policy rate on hold today, in line with the hold-hike-hold pattern that it has followed since the Iran war caused energy prices to jump. A change in messaging today hints that there is probably only one more hikes left to come," the research firm said Thursday. "Whereas the monetary policy statement previously focussed on the upside risk to headline inflation, today the ECB noted that 'while the full effects of the energy shock are still unfolding, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage.'" Meanwhile, analysts noted that Lagarde indicated in the ECB's press conference that some of the Governing Council members considered raising interest rates at its October meeting before unanimously deciding to leave the rates unchanged. "Lagarde highlighted underlying HICP inflation in the next two inflation prints as the most important news between now and the next decision," analysts added. Berenberg also sees an outside chance that the central bank will not hike again at its December meeting.