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Is AGNC Investment (AGNC) Still Undervalued Following Its Third Quarter Loss?

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

AGNC Investment (AGNC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting a third quarter net loss of US$1.36b, compared with net income of US$806m in the same period a year earlier.

AGNC Investment’s latest results landed after a tough stretch for the share price, with the stock down 6.34% on a 30 day share price return and 18.86% on a 90 day share price return. Even so, total shareholder return over three years sits at 74.27% and 10.75% over five years, suggesting long term holders have seen a very different experience to more recent buyers.

Scan beyond AGNC Investment’s headline loss and compare it with hand-picked peers that combine income potential and balance sheet support using our 6 dividend fortresses

After a sharp earnings swing and a weaker recent share price, the question now is simple: Does AGNC Investment still offer enough upside potential to justify the risks at today’s valuation?

Preferred Price-to-Sales Multiple of 47.4x: Is it justified?

On Simply Wall St's numbers, AGNC Investment trades on a Price-to-Sales ratio of 47.4x, which is far richer than peers and sits well above where a lot of investors might expect for a mortgage REIT given its recent loss profile.

The P/S multiple compares the current market value of the equity to the revenue that AGNC Investment generates. It effectively tells you how many dollars investors are paying for each dollar of sales. For a residential mortgage REIT, this yardstick can matter because earnings swing with interest rate moves, while revenue gives a cleaner view of the scale of the portfolio and funding model.

Here, the gap to the wider group is wide. Management trades on 47.4x sales versus 3.6x for the broader US Mortgage REITs sector and 5.6x for AGNC Investment’s peer set, which signals that the market is assigning a far higher revenue valuation than is typical. The internal fair P/S estimate of 7.3x is also far below the current 47.4x level, a signal that the market could move closer to that fair ratio if sentiment or expectations ease off from today's setting.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for AGNC Investment.

Result: Price-to-Sales of 47.4x (OVERVALUED)

Still, the recent quarterly loss and the wide gap between AGNC Investment's current P/S multiple and its internal fair estimate could quickly challenge today’s bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this AGNC Investment narrative.

Another view of AGNC Investment’s value

While the P/S ratio makes AGNC Investment look expensive, the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. At a share price of $8.86, the stock is trading about 26.1% below an estimated future cash flow value of $11.99. Which signal should be treated as more important?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

AGNC Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026
AGNC Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AGNC Investment for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 26 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on AGNC Investment’s valuation and risk profile will not resolve themselves for you. Act while the data is fresh and build your own view by weighing its potential upside against the key concerns and positives highlighted in our 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond AGNC Investment?

If AGNC Investment has sharpened your focus on valuation and risk, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other candidates that fit different roles in a portfolio.