US stock outlook | Apple and Amazon financial reports ignite the stock market, NASDAQ futures rose more than 1%

1. On October 31 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.24%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.87%, and NASDAQ futures were up 1.43%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.47%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.32%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.26%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.34%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.38% to $60.34 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.40% to $64.11 per barrel.

Market news

Starting next week, US stocks will enter winter time, and the opening and closing will be delayed by one hour. Starting November 3 (next Monday), due to the US entering winter time, the trading time for US stocks will be delayed by 1 hour, and the intraday trading period will be changed to 22:30 Beijing time to 05:00 the next morning. Furthermore, starting next Monday, the release of important economic data such as US CPI and non-agricultural agriculture will be delayed by 1 hour from daylight saving time. The trading hours for US stocks are adjusted as follows: pre-market trading is 17:00-22:30 (Beijing time), while intraday trading is 22:30-05:00 (Beijing time).

The US Treasury Secretary said that the Sino-US trade agreement will be signed as early as next week, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Guo Jiakun presided over the regular press conference on October 31. US Treasury Secretary Bezent said that the Sino-US trade agreement can be signed as early as next week. Guo Jiakun said in this regard that during the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders in Busan, they discussed topics such as economic and trade relations and agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. The Chinese authorities also presented the results of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade negotiations yesterday. China is ready to work with the US to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, continuously reduce the list of issues through dialogue and consultation, lengthen the list of cooperation, promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of Sino-US relations, and inject more certainty and stability into the world based on the principles of equality, respect and mutual benefit.

Goldman Sachs CEO warns that if economic growth is weak, the US will face debt “liquidation.” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (David Solomon) warned that if the US economy does not grow faster, rising debt levels may bring a “liquidation” to the economy. “If we continue on the current path and the level of growth does not increase, then there will be a liquidation,” Solomon said. “The way out of trouble lies in growth.” The Wall Street executive also said he believes the possibility of a recession in the short term is “very low.” Solomon's remarks echo widespread concerns that the US and other Western economies are increasingly dependent on debt-driven stimulus policies. This trend was particularly evident during the pandemic, when large-scale government stimulus measures boosted consumer spending.

Has “The Big Short” prototype Michael Berry reversed his attitude? Use the “bubble theory” to vaguely warn of market fervor. “Big Short” Michael Berry, famous for shorting the US real estate market, seems to have issued a vague warning to retail investors about market fervor. He is the prototype for the Hollywood movie “The Big Short,” and he posted on social platforms: “Sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes we can 'turn the tide, 'and sometimes we can only win by staying out of the situation.” At the time Michael Berry posted on the X platform, more and more people began to question the financial soundness of the AI boom — this boom has caused the stock prices of relatively few technology companies to soar. Nvidia, for example, became the first company to surpass $5 trillion in market capitalization this week. Its market capitalization currently accounts for nearly one-tenth of the total market value of the S&P 500 index, and exceeds the gross domestic product of India, Japan, and Germany.

Individual stock news

ExxonMobil (XOM.US) reported third-quarter results with profits exceeding expectations. This achievement was mainly due to increased oil and gas production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, offsetting the impact of falling oil prices. According to financial reports, ExxonMobil's adjusted profit for the July-September quarter was 8.1 billion US dollars, or 1.88 US dollars per share, which exceeded analysts' general expectations of 1.82 US dollars per share, and exceeded expectations for six consecutive quarters. Revenue was $85.3 billion, slightly below expectations of $87.7 billion. As the largest oil producer in the US, ExxonMobil has always emphasized that it has a rich asset portfolio and advanced technology, which is said to be able to improve oil recovery rates and maintain profits even during periods of low crude oil prices. The average price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for the third quarter, was $68.17, down about 13% from the same period last year. However, a series of acquisitions during the reporting period put pressure on its free cash flow.

With “Hess Merger Plus High Profit Oilfield” two-wheel drive, Chevron (CVX.US) cash flow increased 20% countercyclically. US oil and gas giant Chevron has greatly increased oil production and cash flow after completing the first merger of profits from the 53 billion US dollar acquisition of its counterpart Hess. According to financial data, Chevron's Q3 net profit was about 3.6 billion US dollars, down 20% year on year, but Chevron's adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were 1.85 US dollars, exceeding the average expectations of Wall Street analysts of 1.66 US dollars. The US oil and gas hegemon and its European rival Shell, both reported better-than-expected results, while another US energy giant, ExxonMobil, also reported better-than-expected profits. Chevron's performance exceeded expectations, and the acquisition of Hess helped increase oil production.

iPhone Big Sale Teaser! Apple (AAPL.US) Q4 results and guidance exceeded expectations and predicted double-digit sales growth during the holiday season. Apple announced better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 and predicted a sharp increase in sales during the holiday season after the release of the new iPhone, which helped convince investors that its flagship product is still a growth engine. For the fourth fiscal quarter ending September 27, sales increased 7.9% year over year to US$102.5 billion, slightly higher than the previous average forecast of US$102.2 billion. Earnings per share rose to $1.85, higher than the previous average estimate of $1.77. The company's net profit for the fourth fiscal quarter was $27.46 billion, compared to $14.29 billion in the same period last year. The decline was due to one-time tax expenses. Analysts expect Apple's new fiscal quarter (December quarter) sales to reach $132.31 billion, with earnings per share of $2.53 billion. The performance guidance given by Apple has exceeded these expectations.

Western Digital (WDC.US) embarked on a storage “supercycle”, and Q3 performance exceeded expectations. Western Digital's revenue in Q3 increased 27.4% year-on-year to US$2.82 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of US$2.74 billion and exceeding expectations of 2.8%. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.78 were higher than analysts' expectations of $1.58 and beat expectations by 12.9%. Adjusted operating profit of US$856 million was higher than analysts' expectations of US$756.4 million (operating margin of 30.4%, exceeding expectations of 13.2%). Operating profit margin: 28.1%, higher than 15.1% free cash flow of US$599 million in the same period last year, a significant improvement from -61 million US dollars in the same period last year. Inventory turnover days: 80 days, up from 76 days in the previous quarter.

Amazon's (AMZN.US) Q3 performance exceeded expectations, and AWS sales recorded the fastest growth rate in three years. Amazon's Q3 net sales increased 13% year over year to US$18.2 billion, better than analysts' average expectations of US$177.8 billion. By division, sales of the AWS (Amazon Web Services) division increased 20% year over year to US$33 billion, the biggest increase since 2022. The year-on-year growth rate and sales volume were higher than analysts' average expectations of 18% and US$32.4 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, North American business sales increased 11% year over year to 106.3 billion US dollars, and international business sales increased 14% year over year to 40.9 billion US dollars. In terms of profit, Q3 operating profit was US$17.4 billion, the same as the same period last year; net profit was US$21.2 billion, up 39% from the same period last year; diluted earnings per share were US$1.95, better than analysts' average expectations of US$1.57.

VALE.US (VALE.US)'s Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, and net profit surged 78% year over year. Vale's Q3 revenue increased 9% year over year to US$10.42 billion, better than analysts' general expectations of US$10.33 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders was US$2,744 million, up 78% year over year, better than analysts' general expectations of US$2.1 billion. Pro Forma's (formal) profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was US$4.399 billion, up 17% year over year; adjusted EBITDA was US$4.369 billion, up 21% year over year, mainly due to increased sales volume and improved cost efficiency. Vale expects the combined cost of copper to be between $1,000 and $1,500 per ton in 2025, lower than the previously estimated $1,500 to $2,000; it is expected that the comprehensive cost of nickel in 2025 will be between $13,000 and $14,000 per ton, lower than the previous forecast of $14,000 to $15,500.

Nvidia (NVDA.US) deepens Korea's AI landscape: assisting Samsung, SK, and Hyundai in building AI factories, and Samsung may supply them with HBM4 chips. On October 31, during Nvidia CEO Hwang In-hoon's visit to Korea, Nvidia announced cooperation with Samsung Electronics, SK Group, and Hyundai Motor Group respectively to promote AI factory construction. Under the agreement, Nvidia will supply more than 260,000 accelerators to help South Korea launch AI projects. Among them, Nvidia will cooperate with Samsung to build a next-generation AI factory, marking a new era of integration between intelligent computing and chip manufacturing. Samsung's semiconductor AI factory will be equipped with more than 50,000 Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). Samsung said it is in “close discussions” to supply Nvidia's next generation high-bandwidth memory chip, HBM4.

Nokia (NOK.US) received a $1 billion investment from Nvidia, making it one of Europe's core AI targets. Nokia's strong rise this week highlights that the 5G device manufacturer and former mobile phone giant is becoming an important target in the European field of artificial intelligence. After Nvidia (NVDA.US) agreed to take a $1 billion stake in the Finnish company, Nokia's stock price is expected to record the biggest weekly increase since January 2024 and usher in the best month since 2013. According to the details of the partnership, Nvidia's chips will be used to accelerate software development for Nokia's existing 5G and next-generation 6G networks.

Key economic data and event forecasts

21:45 Beijing time: US Chicago PMI for October.

The next day at 01:00 a.m. Beijing time: The total number of US drills (ports) for the week ending October 31.

21:30 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voting committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech.

The next day at 00:00 a.m. Beijing time: 2026 FOMC ticketing committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak delivered a speech at the Bank Financing Conference.

The next day at 00:00 a.m. Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic attended a seminar.

To be confirmed, the CFTC will publish the weekly position report.