Was April's Correction Noise Or Signal For Global Markets?

April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed. Friday's US payrolls data posted a substantially softer-than-expected rise in April. The news lifts the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Much depends on how fast the US economy slows.

Why The Fed Will Likely Be Forced To Cut Rates Before Inflation Goals Are Met

Sentiment Speaks: The End Of Objectivity In Market Analysis And Potentially The Bull Run Too

Looking Through The Fed's Signals

Jean Boivin: We look to incoming data to determine where the Federal Reserve will go, rather than its policy signals. Inflation has been hotter than expected - a reality check for the Fed and markets. We expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady this week. Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight U.S. Stocks.

IMF 2024 Spring Meetings Takeaways: Emerging Market Stars Shine Bright

EM investors and policymakers are enjoying their moment. IMF upgraded US growth forecasts for 2024 by +0.6% of GDP and Chinese PMIs are back to expansion. Most of the concerns over emerging markets have been addressed. The mood at the 2024 IMF Spring meetings was notably upbeat.

Jobs, Wages, Mass Immigration, Full And Part-Time Workers, Unemployment, Prime-Age Participation Rate, And Multiple Jobholders

In April, employers added 175,000 payroll jobs – excluding farm workers and the self-employed – a slower pace than in March. The total number of payroll jobs rose to a record 158.3 million. Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 2.4%, the smallest increase in three years. But the undercount of mass-immigration distorts the household data.

Full-Time Jobs Fall Again As Total Employment Flatlines In April

US economy added 175,000 jobs for the month of April while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. The new reported job growth was considered a 'miss' in that it came in below expectations. The total number of employed persons has flatlined while half a million full-time jobs have disappeared over the past year.

Yen Slips, Yuan Jumps, Dollar Is Mostly Softer

Weekly Report: what happened at SPSM last week (0429-0503)?

Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say?

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say? Jerome Powell was expected to be hawkish at last week's FOMC meeting. The recent rise in rates appears to have run its course, says Joseph Calhoun. He says the market should have priced in a hawkish Powell.

Readers Who Bought Tech During The Selloff, Watch For These Factors

Home Market Outlook: The market should continue to rise this week, particularly in the tech sector. Fed President Powell's dovish FOMC statement and the softer April jobs report will contribute to market optimism this week. The Factors are technical and economic data-related, with market psychology thrown in. David Lerner: Buy The Sell-Off Into The FOMc Meeting, Stay With Tech.

S&P 500: Ready For The Squeeze, Week Starting 6th May (Technical Analysis)

S&P500 closed +28 points higher on Thursday and Friday. The S&P 500's weekly and monthly averages are both neutral to bearish. The 20-week MA held for the third week in a row. Downside follow through in May is likely, but the market is still in a bullish mood.

The VIX Sent The Stock Market Higher, Not A 'Dovish' Fed

The stock market rally during Powell's press conference was due to the 2:35 PM ET VIX melt. Powell's recent press conference did not indicate a dovish stance on rate cuts in 2024. The immediate price action following the Fed meeting does not accurately reflect the market's longer-term direction.

May 2024 Monthly

Will U.S. Economy Stabilize In Q2 2024 After 2 Quarterly Downshifts?

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut. Non-farm payrolls rose 175k in April versus the 240k consensus. Job creation was weaker, unemployment higher and wage growth more subdued than expected in the April employment report. The unemployment rate moves up to 3.9% from 3.8% and the average work week dropped to 34.4 hours. The report has breathed new life into Federal Reserve interest rate cut calls.

Weekly Commentary: Instability

Jobs: Household Report Is Way Below A Weak Headline Number

The BLS reported a gain of 175k jobs which was below expectations of about 200k. The Household Survey was high last month but came in way below the Headline number. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. April saw a reversal where part-time jobs were replaced by full-time. The BLS report was released on the first Friday of every month.

The Jobs Report: A Soft Landing At Hand

Softer April Jobs Growth, Bulls And Doves Rejoice

April nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000, below estimates, and pulled forward rate-cut expectations. Unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9% in April from 3.8% in March. Average hourly earnings came in softer than expected, signaling a decline in wage gains. Stocks futures jumped and yield plunged, but key data remains on tap.