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What’s next for the S&P 500? SA analysts weigh in

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps To Highest Level Since November

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment decreased 9.0 percentage points to 38.3%. Bearish sentiment was last higher on November 2, 2024. Pessimism is above its historical average for the first time in 24 weeks.

SPY has seen net outflows of more than $10B during latest slide

SPY has seen net outflows of more than $10B during latest slide. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 5,264.85 on March 28. The index is within seven points of slipping below the 5,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 24.

Bearish sentiment above historical averages amid rate cut uncertainty, earnings

Bearish sentiment above historical averages amid rate cut uncertainty, earnings report cards. 34% of individual investors think the market will trend down in the next six months. U.S. Stocks on Wednesday posted a four-day losing streak for the first time since the start of the year.

SPY: Resurgent Inflation, Soaring Yields, Geopolitical Turmoil - 1970s All Over Again?

U.S. Equity market has remained resilient despite resurgent inflation and soaring treasury yields. There is a risk of stagflation similar to the 1970s due to growing conflict in the Middle East. The equity market looks ripe for a correction due to high valuations and impending liquidity withdrawal.

VOO: 2024 Return Projection Based On Excess CAPE Yield

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has a downside risk of around 8% by the end of 2024. The projection is based on the Excess CAPE Yield (ECY) The ECY is near the lowest levels in several decades, indicating high valuation risks and low future return potential. Alternative ideas include VTI, which provides exposure to mid-cap and small-cap stocks.

A Market Plagued By Uncertainty

Market volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are causing market volatility. China is aiming for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2024. The country has set ambitious growth targets and aims to become a hub of innovation and sustainable development. China's economy has been under pressure for the past year and a half but is expected to recover.