SPXS

Fed Interference Makes Markets Hard To Predict

The Fed has implemented backdoor quantitative easing through bank bailouts and subsidies in the overnight repo market, distorting the stock market. Promised rate cuts by the Fed may not materialize due to the record amount of Treasuries being sold and rising interest rates. The Biden administration has also distorted the energy landscape by selling off half of the US oil reserves.

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest Apr. 19, 2024. September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing. Fed funds futures on April 18 are estimating a roughly 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its current 5.25-5.50% target rate at the Sep. 18 meeting.

Belated March CPI Analysis

March CPI release convinced the Fed and the market that inflation has stalled. Boy Wirat says he thinks the great inflation bubble that started three years ago has long since popped. He says the main reason inflation is still high is because of the way shelter costs are calculated. Boy says housing price inflation has dropped significantly from its peak.

What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.