Yen Dumps Before It Jumps

Japanese yen jumps to almost JPY160.20 before falling sharply to JPY154.55. FOMC meeting, the US employment report, and the eurozone CPI were to be the highlights of the week. The dollar weakened against the other major currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied almost 3% last week.

Weekly Report: what happened at UPRO last week (0422-0426)?

S&P 500: Trade Of The Year. Week Starting 29th April (Technical Analysis)

S&P 500 is recovering in what could be a prolonged and complex corrective phase. The S&P500 should eventually drop below 4818 to set up the "trade of the year" Andrew McElroy looks at the probable path next week. The monthly and quarterly charts still have a bullish bias for new highs.

Fed Pivot? Traders Thwarted Again As Inflation Just Won't Go Away

Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its meeting next week. Traders have placed bets on a return to low inflation and low interest rates. Inflation continues to be a problem. The Fed is now expected to cut rates back to September. The stock market doesn't seem to care about the economy.

Barclays sees an uptick in recession fears

Barclays sees an uptick in recession fears. The firm says its "early recession" portfolio basket has seen its largest increase in months. Barclays says this suggests that recessionary fears are starting to creep back into the equity space. The bank's investment baskets include five stages of the business cycle.

This Week's Massive Data Dump Could Send Rates And The Dollar Soaring

Financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and disinflation stalls. Job data this week will determine if trends of higher yields and a stronger dollar will continue. This week will be loaded with job data, starting with the employment cost index for the first quarter. Technical indicators suggest higher rates and the stronger dollar, leading to wider spreads and lower stock prices.

Week Ahead: FOMC, U.S. Jobs, EMU Inflation, JPY Pressure

Home Market Outlook Forex Analysis Week Ahead: FOMC, . Jobs, EMU Inflation, JPY Pressure. The backing up of US rates did not lift the dollar broadly. The Bank of Japan had an opportunity to protest the yen's weakness but did not. The eurozone is expected to report that the economy expanded in Q1.

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2-percent average inflation target. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained elevated. The latest numbers will do little to sway members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Retail Sales Data Suggests A Strong Consumer, Or Does It

March retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become more optimistic about economic growth this year. Retail sales data was extraordinarily weak from October to January, the traditionally strongest shopping months of the year. Lance Roberts says to remain cautious about economic exuberance. He says the March retail sales report was NOT adjusted for inflation.

Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?

SA Analyst Roundtable: When will the Fed cut rates?

SA Analyst Roundtable: When will the Fed cut rates? The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week. Lawrence Fuller, Michael Kramer, Logan Kane and James Kostohryz say the first rate cut will likely come in May 2025. The SA analysts say they don't expect the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024.

The Turn Is Coming

The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate is moving higher at a rapid pace. 88% of portfolio managers in the Bank of America Fund Managers Survey last week believed lower rates were ahead. I believe we are seeing a long-awaited turn away from the single focus of high tech as the only option for investors. Positive economic activity is the primary driver of the 10yr Treasury rate and core industrials.

U.S. Economic Growth Plunges In First Quarter 2024

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis U.S. Economic Growth Plunges In First Quarter 2024. The release of 1st quarter 2024 Gross Domestic Product surprised virtually all forecasters. The first three months of 2024 were characterized by a notable deceleration in US economic growth, marking an almost two-year low.

U.S. Inflation Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Too Hot

U.S. Inflation Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Too Hot in the first quarter. The core PCE deflator came in at 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%. Inflation is still too hot and September remains the earliest opportunity for an interest rate cut.

Weekly Commentary: Opposite Day

The Semiconductor Index surged 9.9%, more than recovering from last week's 9.2% drubbing. The Bank of Japan just can't stop playing with fire. Short squeezes are alive and well. Tesla surged 14.4% this week. The bulls have plenty of fight.

Fed Likely To Hold Rates Steady And Warn Of The Risk Of Delay To Cuts

Inflation and strong activity and jobs numbers have pushed the timing of the first interest rate cut to December. The Federal Reserve will remain wary and signal that if inflation stays high, so will interest rates. ING sees an opportunity for a September rate cut. The Fed likely to hold rates steady and warn of the risk of a delay to cuts.

Equity Factor Report - Q1 2024: Momentum Strategies Shine

Strong investor sentiment and continued economic strength led momentum strategies to outperform in Q1 2024. The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 8.3% in the first quarter. Russell Investments' Factor Portfolios like Global Large Cap Growth, Momentum, and Quality outperformed the MSCi ACWI.

These Three Metrics Tell A Story About The U.S. Economy

Major US indices down for the month, NASDAQ-100 hit with a 7.10% drawdown. Inflation, GDP, and unemployment are the big three metrics used to approximate the trajectory of the U.S. Economy. This month, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.48% year-over-year. The Federal Funds Rate is expected to stay at current levels.

The Odds For Rate Hikes May Have Increased Dramatically

Inflation is accelerating, with core PCE and PCE Supercore rising at higher rates. Consumer inflation expectations are increasing. The current policy stance may need to shift from rate cuts to rate hikes if inflation continues to rise. The odds for rate cuts in 2024 are melting away.

Fed Meeting Preview: Unexpected Macro Data Likely To Alter Fedspeak

US economy grew at 1.6% in Q1 2024, the slowest rate of growth in seven quarters. The latest GDP print came in lower than expected while inflation has inched up. Changes in Fedspeak are anticipated as the Fed meets this week. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is still the labor market.