TIP

Oil Price Shock 2024: The Path To $300

Major disruption of global oil supplies could cause global oil prices to rise to $300 per barrel in 2024. The Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and Bab el-Mandab are key choke points for global oil supply disruptions. Attacks on oil export infrastructure in Saudi Arabia could also cause massive disruptions.

TIP: ETF Outflow Alert

Industrial Production March 2024: Too Strong For Fed Cuts

U.S. Federal Reserve published the Industrial Production report for March 2024. Industrial Production expanded by +0.39%, an above-average rate of growth, in line with the median forecast. The potential for an oil price shock is the biggest threat to the U.s. Economy in 2024. James Kostohryz says the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates.

With Breakevens At 2.4%, TIP Looks Better Than Treasuries

IShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) is a treasury-inflation protected securities. TIPs yield around 2.5% plus inflation and are expected to outperform normal treasuries with inflation rates higher than 2.4%. With inflation running at +3.0% and no signs of going lower, TIP's seem stronger than normal Treasuries right now. IShares TIps Bond ETF is an index fund investing in TIP securities.

Retail Sales March 2024: No Landing Means Rates Higher For Longer

Retail sales in the U.S. Expanded by +0.72% in March 2024, surprising to the upside. The Census Bureau just published its Advance Report on Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services. The strong retail sales report suggests that the US economy is in a "no-landing" scenario.

Weekly Report: what happened at TIP last week (0408-0412)?

iShares TIPS Bond (TIP) Shares Cross Below 200 DMA

Inflation Scenarios Without A War: U.S. Markets Face Trouble

Four non-oil-shock scenarios for US core inflation between now and October 2024 are examined. We discuss different inflation scenarios for the USA, assuming no major disruptions to global oil supplies. We believe that under any of the four inflation scenarios analyzed, the U.S. Financial markets will face troubles.