SSPY

Moderately Bullish On 2024: Markets To Overcome Pessimism And Challenges

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at SSPY last week (0408-0412)?

Iran Attacks Israel: What Middle East Turmoil Means For Markets

Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israel over the weekend. Conflict in the Middle East has little effect on overall stock market performance but can impact the price of commodities, particularly oil. Continued tensions may benefit oil stocks, while gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical chaos. The Middle East isn't likely to affect the overall markets.

A Black Swan In Plain Sight: The 10-Year Treasury Yield To 6%

Treasury yields are near 20-year highs, with implications for housing, autos, banks, tech, and the stock market. We could easily reach 6% for 10-year Treasury yields, 9% for mortgages, and 8% for car loans in 2024. This is a potential black swan for markets expecting a return to ultra-easy monetary policy.

A Stronger Dollar May Drive The S&P 500 Much Lower

Stronger dollar will affect financial conditions, earnings estimates for multinational companies, and lead to a contraction in the S&P 500's PE ratio. US CPI report and ECB policy meeting highlight divergent paths for the Fed and ECB, driving further dollar strength. Widening spreads between central banks and interest rates could send the euro lower and impact other currency pairs.

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

The U.S. Economy In Peril: Part 2 - Inflation

Inflation concerns and hotter-than-expected inflation data are reducing the outlook for rate cuts by the Fed. Wages remain high, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting small businesses. The Fed has no control over spending on "green energy" and other factors that contribute to inflation. The latest CPI report is the third in a row with hotter than expected inflation.