IEI

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher. In April alone, the 10-Year Treasury yield has popped up 47 basis points. Treasury yields have exploded in April after inflation data and strong retail figures. The 10- years last topped 5% late last year.

Fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels

fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels. Money managers are the most bullish they have been in more than two years. Expectations for bonds have reversed and the highest percentage of respondents consider gold overvalued. Optimism on global growth rose for the first time since December 2021.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high on Monday morning. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since November 14th. Yields made a push higher on Monday after a hot retail sales report and rising geopolitical tensions.

Weekly Report: what happened at IEI last week (0408-0412)?