SPMV

Economic Growth, Labor Productivity And Investment

Labor productivity-output per hour worked-drives long-run economic growth. Bill Conerly says the U.S. Can't expect the economy to grow by working longer hours. He says productivity growth has slowed since the Great Recession. Conerley says businesses need to focus on improving productivity to boost growth.

Trials And Tribulations

Bank of America projects that the United States will have a debt of $34 trillion by year-end. Mark Grant says the U.S. Spent $429 billion on interest payments alone in the last year. America sold $22 trillion in debt last year while the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation. He says the Fed needs to consider the collateral damage to our economy.

U.S. Q1 2024 GDP Growth Looks Set For Slowdown In Thursday's Release

US economy appears on track to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday. The key debate is whether the economy will stabilize at a softer pace of growth vs. Decelerate further in the months ahead. A critical factor supporting the upbeat economic view: consumer spending is still solid.

Climbing Limo GDP Forecast For Q1 2024

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the United States' Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter of 2024. It's a good opportunity to check in with how 2024-Q1's GDP tracks with what a momentum-based forecasting method projected it would be for this quarter. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for 2024- Q1 could be the first in which actual GDP exceeds the momentum forecast.

The Next Fed Meeting And The Potential Impact On 2024 Equity Returns

Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting will have a significant impact on the equity market and stock prices. I don't expect an interest rate cut at the meeting and see a possibility for higher 10-year rates in the next 1-2 years. I see a gloomy return profile for the S&P 500 index in 2024.

SPY: The Setup Looks Extremely Bearish

SPY has been on a strong run recently, but the outlook is very bearish right now. The S&P 500 is overvalued based on several valuation models. A weakening macroeconomic outlook also poses a severe headwind for SPY. SPY is facing a challenging economic environment and outlook.

Potential Opportunities In Quantitative And Passive Investing

Julien Palardy, Managing Director and Head of Quantitative and Passive Investing at TD Asset Management, discusses the strategies his team uses to generate opportunities. The rise of geopolitical risks and uncertainty may lead some investors to consider different approaches to investing. Julien: Quantitative investing is different from passive investing.

Higher Bar For U.S. Earnings To Deliver

U.S. Stocks have slid from their highs as inflation proves sticky and geopolitical tensions rise. We eye whether corporate earnings can keep buoying sentiment. The bar is higher for tech firms to deliver on high earnings expectations. We see inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer. We still prefer artificial intelligence (AI) beneficiaries.