News
ZROZ
79.17
+0.09%
0.08
Quick Thoughts: Do Elections Matter For Markets?
Home Market Outlook Today's Market Quick Thoughts: Do Elections Matter For Markets? Stephen Dover of Franklin Templeton Institute examines the major parties and their potential implications on capital markets in the US 2024 presidential elections. The field is set for the presidential elections for the US in 2024. Dover also discusses the potential implications of competing policy outcomes for capital markets.
Seeking Alpha · 20h ago
Money Supply Dips For First Time Since November
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Q1 2024 CIO Overview And Outlook
Home Market Outlook Today's Market Q1 2024 CIO Overview And Outlook. Growth of the US economy continues to slow, but recession is elusive. The outlook for the Fed seems to range from seven rate cuts to as few as three. Electoral politics had little bearing on stock market pricing in the first quarter of 2024.
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
A Momentous Week For Monetary Policy Bodes Well For Markets
Bank of Japan raises rates for the first time in 17 years. Swiss National Bank becomes first developed central bank to cut rates in this rate cycle. The BOJ's decision to end negative interest rates is a vote of confidence in the Japanese economy. Five developed and seven emerging market central banks met last week.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
M2 Update - Still Looking Good
The Fed released the February money supply data, and there were no unwelcome surprises. M2 continues to shrink relative to the economy, and that's the reason inflation is likely to continue to fall. Currency in circulation rose at a 6.6% annual rate from 2010 to 2021. The demand for money exploded in the wake of the crisis.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
2024 Global Market Outlook - Q2 Update: Pent-Up Exuberance
Home Market Outlook Today's Market 2024 Global Market Outlook - Q2 Update: Pent-Up Exuberance. The U.S. Economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2024, but economic uncertainty remains high. The labor market is slowing down and lower-income households are under stress.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
An Update On The 'Investment Seesaw'
Home Market Outlook Gold & Precious Metals An Update On The 'Investment Seesaw' Mar. 26, 2024. We consider gold bullion and the S&P 500 Index to be effectively at opposite ends of an investment seesaw. The combination of the US stock market and gold is currently under-valued compared to the money supply.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Why We Stay Risk-On In The Short Term
U.S. Stocks hit record highs last week and 10-year yields fell as the Fed stuck with planned rate cuts. Japanese stocks gained on a cautious BOJ policy pivot. We see falling inflation, nearing interest rate cuts and solid corporate earnings supporting cheery risk sentiment.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
A Major Change In The Markets
Investors are now focused on growth more than inflation, says Neuberger Berman. Equities rallied even as bonds struggled, reversing the strong positive correlation between the two asset classes. Japan appears to have reached a sweet spot in its own developed developed world. Investors are now normalizing inflation and refocusing on growth.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Weekly Market Pulse: Rational Exuberance?
Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Pulse: Rational Exuberance? Joseph Calhoun looks at Alan Greenspan's speech about central banking. The dollar was up a little more than 1% last week. The rally last week was broad based with 10 of 11 economic sectors higher. Calhoun says what is happening today is a form of excessive exuberance.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Weekly Report: what happened at ZROZ last week (0318-0322)?
Weekly Report · 4d ago
What The Bond Market Is Telling Us About The Future Path Of Rate Cuts
U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling it still sees three rate cuts this year. Greg Bonnell looks at the outlook for rates and the implications for the bond market. Scott Colbourne, Managing Director and Head of Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management, weighs in. What The Bond Market Is Telling Us About The Future Path Of Rate Cuts.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Central Banks Pause Hikes, Risk Assets Rally
Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Central Banks Pause Hikes, Risk Assets Rally. The US Fed paused for the fifth consecutive meeting since July 2023. It's typical for risk assets to rally when central banks pause rate hiking efforts and start easing policy. Higher interest rates and yields are better for savers but net negative in highly indebted economies.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Rate Cuts Are Coming, But Timing Remains Uncertain
With a resilient economy and sticky inflation, expect policymakers to choose caution over speed. The healthy labor market and robust economic data have pushed back the expected start of the U.S. Rate cut cycle. Gradual disinflation has pushed the Federal Reserve to be more dovish.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
The Happiest Fed Ever
The median FOMC projection for 2024 real GDP growth is 2.1 percent, up substantially from the December estimate of 2.4 percent. Powell is a student of history, and the Fed chair seemed to be feeling good. Almost every major tightening cycle since 1970 has ended in a recession. Fed officials are increasingly comfortable with the end of the 2022-23 cycle.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell - I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
Federal Reserve's March policy meeting has generated vocal reactions. Sonal Desai says the market is trying to read too much into the Fed's new economic projections and Jerome Powell's words. He says Powell is a pragmatic Fed that has already been burnt by high inflation. Desai: Powell's comments were the most dovish signal from the Fed.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
March 2024 FOMC
The FOMC held its target rate range constant at 5.25-5.5%. Real GDP growth was revised up for all four projection years and significantly for 2024. The median federal funds rate held steady at 4.6%. The path to 2% is still uncertain.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Quick Thoughts: The Fed - Steady As She Goes
The Federal Reserve decided to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at its March 20 FOMC meeting. Despite the 2024 gross domestic product growth expectations rising to 2.1% from 1.4%, the unemployment rate still near historic 50-year lows. The markets responded well, with most major equity indexes up about 1% by day's end.
Seeking Alpha · 03/22 09:05
The Money Supply Fell For The 15th Month In A Row As Full-Time Jobs Disappear
Money supply growth fell again in January, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. Money supply growth has now been negative for fifteen months in a row. January's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs of the past three years. Negative growth is the largest we've seen since the Great Depression.
Seeking Alpha · 03/22 07:45
Q&A: Fed Rate Cut Edition
Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Q&A: Fed Rate Cut Edition. At Wednesday’s FOMC meeting the Fed stood by their estimate of 3 rate cuts in 2024. The Fed hasn’t moved to cut just yet because they’re still a little cautious about another flare-up in inflation.
Seeking Alpha · 03/22 07:00
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