Weekly Report: what happened at YCS last week (0408-0412)?

Where We Stand

Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over

Higher than expected US CPI for the third consecutive month drove US interest rates sharply higher and lifted the greenback broadly. The market appears to be catching its breath today, but the shallow consolidation suggests the moves are not over. The dollar has reached nearly JPY153.30. Gold fell by about $18.75 an ounce yesterday, its largest loss in about a month.

The Bank of Japan's New Path Ahead

The Bank of Japan is set to normalise monetary policy when certain conditions are met. In March, the BoJ raised rates for the first time in 17 years. ING expects inflation to fall below 2% and a recovery in domestic demand growth to support growth in 2024. The market is pricing in a 25bp hike by the end of the year.

U.S. CPI, New Security Initiatives With Tokyo And Manila, Bank Of Canada Meeting

The dollar has been confined to narrow ranges ahead of the US CPI report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that it was in no hurry to cut rates. The New Zealand dollar is leading the G10 currencies higher. The Hang Seng and the mainland companies in Asia are leading the region. Gold is consolidating in about $2345-$2360.

Dollar Consolidates Softer Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI

Dollar Consolidates Softer Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Apr. 09. The dollar is trading with a softer bias in mostly narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Most of the large Asia Pacific equity markets rallied. The March CPI and PPI are due first thing tomorrow. Gold hits a new record of $2365.35.

Weekly Report: what happened at YCS last week (0401-0405)?

Will The Market Push The Dollar Above JPY152 As Japanese Prime Minister Heads To The U.S.?

Week Ahead: Strong U.S. Jobs Data Failed To Sustain Dollar Rally, Can The March CPI Do Better?

U.S. Employment Data To Set Dollar's Course

Asia Pacific equities tumbled, led by more than 1% losses in Japan and South Korea. The 10-year Treasury yield is up a couple of basis points to 4.33%. The focus is squarely on the US employment report. In February, household spending fell by 0.2% year-over-year in Japan.

Greenback Losses Extended, But Look For Consolidation In North America

softer-than-expected ISM services report caught the market leaning the wrong way. The Dollar Index saw its second-biggest loss of the year, falling by about 0.50%. The momentum indicators are stretched and consolidation in North America is the most likely scenario. Only Taiwan fell in the Asia Pacific region.

The Paradox Of Japan's Negative Rates

After the Bank of Japan cut rates below zero in January 2016, the yen gained 10% against the U.S. Dollar. The yen sold off while the Nikkei 225 rallied. The recent hike in interest rates may end up further stimulating, instead of slowing, economic growth. Negative rates act as a tax on the banking system rather than stimulating growth.

Rate Adjustment Underpins Greenback

Gold, Oil, And Interest Rates Rise

The Dollar Index made a new high for the year, a little above 105. The two-year Treasury yield surged almost 9 basis points to settle above 4.7%. Gold reached a new record high slightly below $2267. The market put more weight on the rise in the US ISM manufacturing survey. The Turkish lira and South African rand are firmer against the dollar.

China PMI Is Better Than Expected But The Greenback Still Rises Above CNY7.23

Weekly Report: what happened at YCS last week (0325-0329)?

April 2024 Monthly

Weekly Commentary: On Currency Watch Following Melt-Up Q1 2024

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Commentary: On Currency Watch Following Melt-Up Q1 2024. Bitcoin ended the quarter up 159% from October lows, trading at a record high. Financial conditions loosened further, building on the Fed's dovish pivot. The spectacular risk asset melt-up was ongoing.

Japan Ends Its Negative Interest Rate Policy

Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy on March 19, 2024. Higher interest rates and rising inflation expectations are positive for the Japanese equity market. We are positive on Japanese banks, industrials and consumer discretionary companies. The impact of the policy change on the USD-JPY rate is likely to be gradual.

Waller Pushes On Open Door: Push For Patience Lifts The Dollar, Complicating Japanese Efforts

Comments by Fed Governor Waller, urging patience on rates has helped the greenback extend its recent gains. Poor German data has weighed on the euro, taking the single currency to new lows for the month. Japanese officials are signaling their willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to strengthen the yen. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up three basis points.