U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Weekly Report: what happened at TBF last week (0415-0419)?

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

A (Un)Certain Framework

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at TBF last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.