Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest Apr. 19, 2024. September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing. Fed funds futures on April 18 are estimating a roughly 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its current 5.25-5.50% target rate at the Sep. 18 meeting.

Belated March CPI Analysis

March CPI release convinced the Fed and the market that inflation has stalled. Boy Wirat says he thinks the great inflation bubble that started three years ago has long since popped. He says the main reason inflation is still high is because of the way shelter costs are calculated. Boy says housing price inflation has dropped significantly from its peak.

What’s next for the S&P 500? SA analysts weigh in

SPY has seen net outflows of more than $10B during latest slide

SPY has seen net outflows of more than $10B during latest slide. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 5,264.85 on March 28. The index is within seven points of slipping below the 5,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 24.

What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Global Growth Returns And The 2025 Fiscal Reckoning

Gold prices are hitting all-time highs despite outflows from U.S. Bullion ETFs. Investors should be prepared for a gold/bitcoin/bitcoin bull market in 2024-2025, says Klaus Vedfelt. Gold is signaling that government spending policy could be wildly stimulative.

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

ProShares Ultra S&P500 Experiences Big Outflow

Where's The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue. Inflation cooled substantially last year, but upside surprises in early 2024 for the US and Europe have many investors concerned. Global central banks seem to be making continued progress. In inflation, inflation is improving in more major economies.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Private-sector pay up 12% annualised on a month-on-month basis. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area. The Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time.

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.

The Tides Of Time: The Impact Of Aging Demographics

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.