'No Rate Cut' Bear Scares S&P 500 Into Retreat

The S&P 500 fell again during the third week of April 2024. Main driving force behind the falling level of stock prices are slipping expectations for when and by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during 2024. The index has dropped 5.5% below its record peak closing value from 28 March 2024.

The 'Mag Seven' Components Take Big Hits As Boring May Becoming Beautiful

Friday’s trade makes you wonder if the game is not over for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ The bulletproof case may be unwinding for Big Tech. The market seems to be getting comfortable with the Fed message of “higher for longer” Big Tech has become a parking lot for those seeking growth without economic sensitivity.

S&P 500 Earnings: So Far, The Pattern Is Typical, But Mega-Cap Earnings This Week Loom Large

So far, the typical earnings pattern for the S&P 500 is showing no signs of anything amiss. The mega-caps will simply trade at lower multiples than they have in the past few years. The hallmark of any bull or bear market is P/E expansion and contraction. The top 10-12 market cap names comprise roughly 24-25% of the s&p 500’s earnings weight. Mega-Cap Earnings this week are expected to be strong.

Global Growth Is Back As Fiscal Reckoning Looms In 2025

Jan van Eck says the global economy is now back on a growth trajectory, but there is a potential fiscal crisis to watch for in 2025. Global growth should make you rethink your commodity allocation, he says. Van Eck shares where he thinks investors should be allocated to the world economy.

Adapting To Economic Paradigm Shifts

Home Investing Strategy Portfolio Strategy Adapting To Economic Paradigm Shifts. Investors should look to real assets to diversify beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio. The global economy may be shifting from a low inflationary paradigm driven by disinflationary forces to an inflationary one.

Higher Bar For U.S. Earnings To Deliver

U.S. Stocks have slid from their highs as inflation proves sticky and geopolitical tensions rise. We eye whether corporate earnings can keep buoying sentiment. The bar is higher for tech firms to deliver on high earnings expectations. We see inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer. We still prefer artificial intelligence (AI) beneficiaries.

Weekly Report: what happened at SPMD last week (0415-0419)?

S&P 500: Capitulation? Week Starting 22nd April (Technical Analysis)

The S&P 500 has broken supports, suggesting a large correction targeting an undercut of 4818 is underway. The Israel/Iran conflict continued lower on Thursday and Friday. The drop has reached the 20-week MA for the S&p500. Is the correction a short-term capitulation or a bounce? This weekend's article will look at the probable paths for the remainder of the correction. Did the Israel attack on Iran make a capitulation bottom?

Powell Playing Games: 'Sell In May' Is Now 'Sell Before May'

The S&P 500 has fallen over 5% from its peak. The Fed strategically hints at certain actions to gauge market reactions and buy time. The Middle East situation introduces big uncertainty and a visible flight to safety. We could be looking at the beginning of a supercycle in commodities.

Hoisington Investment Management Q1 2024 Review And Outlook

Negative Net National Saving can no longer fully capture the harmful effect of debt on economic growth. The Federal Reserve is on the path to reducing inflation to the policy objective, says Hoisington Investment Management. The Fed's actions would not boost the rate of growth in real GDP.

This Week's GDP And PCE Reports May Bring More Pain To The Market

This week's GDP And PCE Reports May Bring More Pain To The Market. First quarter GDP and March PCE reports could lead to higher rates, a stronger dollar, and a decline in the stock market. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the estimates for GDP and PCE may be too low, indicating potential upside surprises.

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Weekly Commentary: World-Wide De-Risking/Deleveraging

Business Conditions Monthly February 2024

Economic Warning From The NFIB

Brad Simpson On Rising Iran-Israel Tensions And The Implications For Markets

Fed Interference Makes Markets Hard To Predict

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Turbulence Signaled By S&P 500 Dividend Futures Arrives