Weekly Report: what happened at SHV last week (0415-0419)?

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

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A (Un)Certain Framework

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.

Market Cycle Momentum Reigniting (Q2 2024 Update)

Market cycle appears to be reigniting, suggesting a shift towards more cyclical assets like commodities and equities. The overall momentum in corporate earnings, commodities, and interest rates continues to trend downwards. Signs of reacceleration are evident in commodities and Treasury yields. The market cycle remains in a high-altitude, oxygen-deprived position.

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Weekly Report: what happened at SHV last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.