U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck. The bank sees the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge moving down in 2024. The PCE inflation figures could be a significant catalyst for the stock market this week. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released on Friday.

Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates

U.S. Economy Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates. The core PCe inflation reading for March is slated to be released Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield dragged the S&P 500 down 5.6% from its all-time high.

Weekly Report: what happened at IEI last week (0415-0419)?

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Bond yields tick down as cash moves to safety following apparent Israel strike on Iran

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

PHT: Two Concerns, But Otherwise A Very Good Junk Bond Fund

Treasury yields resume climb, J.P. Morgan flags risk of US2Y consolidating at 5%

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

A (Un)Certain Framework

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher. In April alone, the 10-Year Treasury yield has popped up 47 basis points. Treasury yields have exploded in April after inflation data and strong retail figures. The 10- years last topped 5% late last year.

Fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels

fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels. Money managers are the most bullish they have been in more than two years. Expectations for bonds have reversed and the highest percentage of respondents consider gold overvalued. Optimism on global growth rose for the first time since December 2021.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech