Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The Treasury market has convinced the crowd to demand a higher yield.

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

The Federal Reserve is considering reducing the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed's securities holdings have dropped from $8.5 trillion to $6.97 trillion. Kevin Flanagan says the Fed's ultimate goal is to have only Treasuries on its balance sheet. He says a "QT taper" is not on the immediate horizon.

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Economic reflation is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains. The last time Wall Street focused on the reflation trade was in 2009. Interest rates, gold, and commodity prices have increased in the past few months. The house view for 2024 remains intact.

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue. Inflation cooled substantially last year, but upside surprises in early 2024 for the US and Europe have many investors concerned. Global central banks seem to be making continued progress. In inflation, inflation is improving in more major economies.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

Jerome Powell Back In Hawkish Policy Lane? Why Economists Feel Fed's 'Higher For Longer' Narrative Hasn't Changed: 'Markets Need To Focus On The Fact That...'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy may be necessary. Powell did not offer explicit guidance on a rate-cutting strategy. Economists say the Fed is likely to maintain a "higher for longer" approach. Economist Peter Schiff challenged Powell's characterization of the current monetary policy.

Oil Price Shock 2024: The Path To $300

Major disruption of global oil supplies could cause global oil prices to rise to $300 per barrel in 2024. The Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and Bab el-Mandab are key choke points for global oil supply disruptions. Attacks on oil export infrastructure in Saudi Arabia could also cause massive disruptions.

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Experiences Big Inflow

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher. In April alone, the 10-Year Treasury yield has popped up 47 basis points. Treasury yields have exploded in April after inflation data and strong retail figures. The 10- years last topped 5% late last year.

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels

fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels. Money managers are the most bullish they have been in more than two years. Expectations for bonds have reversed and the highest percentage of respondents consider gold overvalued. Optimism on global growth rose for the first time since December 2021.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.

Bond Yields Surge To 6-Month Highs As Likelihood Of No-Landing Scenario Increases: UBS Warns Of Potential Fed Rate Hikes To 6.5%

U.S. Treasury yields have reached their highest levels since mid-November 2023. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 4.61% on Monday, a peak not observed since Nov. 14. Strong economic data has led to a shift in market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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Market Cycle Momentum Reigniting (Q2 2024 Update)

Market cycle appears to be reigniting, suggesting a shift towards more cyclical assets like commodities and equities. The overall momentum in corporate earnings, commodities, and interest rates continues to trend downwards. Signs of reacceleration are evident in commodities and Treasury yields. The market cycle remains in a high-altitude, oxygen-deprived position.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high on Monday morning. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since November 14th. Yields made a push higher on Monday after a hot retail sales report and rising geopolitical tensions.