A More Balanced Portfolio Model

The traditional 60/40 portfolio, consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, may not perform as well in the future. Inflation and energy/commodity price cycles have historically negatively impacted the 60/ 40 portfolio. The concept is based on assumptions that may not hold true anymore, such as declining interest rates and the US stock market. This article focuses on portfolio management in an era of less structural disinflation.

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck. The bank sees the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge moving down in 2024. The PCE inflation figures could be a significant catalyst for the stock market this week. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released on Friday.

Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates

U.S. Economy Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates. The core PCe inflation reading for March is slated to be released Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield dragged the S&P 500 down 5.6% from its all-time high.

Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher For 30 Years?

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher for 30 years? The Treasury curve was up 9 basis points at 2 years and was up 12 basis points in 10 years over the last week. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since 1976. The 1-month forward rate in 30 years jumped 0.19% to 3.77%. Inverted Treasury yield curve is an important indicator of a future recession.

Weekly Report: what happened at BND last week (0415-0419)?

A Fond Goodbye To I Bonds While Examining The Role They Actually Play In A Portfolio

Jim Sloan: I Bonds have served me well since his first purchase in 2000. I Bonds offer deflation protection, a solid return and a chance to defer taxes. Purchasing an I Bond before the May 1 reset assures a 4.77% return based on a combined fixed rate of 1.3% and inflation contribution.

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher. In April alone, the 10-Year Treasury yield has popped up 47 basis points. Treasury yields have exploded in April after inflation data and strong retail figures. The 10- years last topped 5% late last year.

Weekly Forecast, April 12, 2024: Higher For Longer

AOA: Passive Bond-Equity Allocations Are Questionable

IShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF is a fund of funds implementing a 80/20 allocation model in global equities and bonds. The AOA has an exposure to foreign securities of about 35%, which implies some currency risk. AOA strategies based on the negative correlation of stocks and bonds are questionable.

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high on Monday morning. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since November 14th. Yields made a push higher on Monday after a hot retail sales report and rising geopolitical tensions.

Weekly Report: what happened at BND last week (0408-0412)?

BND: Your Money Deserves Better

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares (BND) is a well-diversified fund with low volatility and negligible expenses. BND is a $330+ billion fund that holds thousands of income securities. The current environment is not favorable for the fund. The fund is expected to continue to suffer as interest rates rise.

Tradeweb Exchange-Traded Funds Update - March 2024

10-year yield tops 4.5% after strong CPI report

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.5% after strong CPI report on Wednesday. The U.s. 2-year Treasury yield is now knocking on the door of 5%. Inflation remains sticky after a hotter-than-forecasted inflation report. The 10- year yield is trading at its highest levels since November of 2023.

Morgan Stanley spotlights 4.35% on the 10-year Treasury as a key technical level

Morgan Stanley spotlights 4.35% on the 10-year Treasury as a key technical level. The benchmark yield pushed above that level for the first time this year last week. The 10- year Treasury yield has now gained 51 basis points on the year. Morgan Stanley says 4. 35% is a keytechnical level.

Asset Class Scoreboard: March 2024

March brought widespread growth across asset classes. Commodities led returns at +4.45%, driven higher by resilient demand for energy and materials. Stocks, bonds, and real estate advanced as the economic outlook stayed positive. Managed futures strategies delivered solid outperformance of +3.20%.

Adam Abbas' Fixed Income Market Commentary - Q1 2024

Treasury yields advance as CPI and PPI loom

U.S. Treasury yields advance as CPI and PPI loom ahead of this week's key inflation data. The 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year treasury yield both gained ground on Monday. Goldman Sachs says a move towards 4.80% is when higher rates could start to impact stocks.

Weekly Forecast, April 5, 2024: US Treasury Forward Rates Shift Up 16-23 Basis Points

Weekly Report: what happened at BND last week (0401-0405)?