Business Conditions Monthly February 2024

Economic Warning From The NFIB

Fed Interference Makes Markets Hard To Predict

Looking Back At Equity Factors In Q1 2024 With WisdomTree

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Global Growth Returns And The 2025 Fiscal Reckoning

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

A (Un)Certain Framework

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.

The Tides Of Time: The Impact Of Aging Demographics

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

Moderately Bullish On 2024: Markets To Overcome Pessimism And Challenges