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CIIC Stock Is Now Overvalued Before Its Merger With Arrival
CIIG Merger Corp (NASDAQ:CIIC) announced on Nov. 18 that it had reached a merger agreement with a prominent electric vehicle (EV) company. That EV company, Arrival Group, is based in the U.K. and already has two factories, including one in South Carolina. My view is that CIIC stock is worth now overvalued, as it is not worth more than $20.66. That puts it at least 26% overvalued. Source: nrqemi / CIIG is a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) that is going to use its own cash and equity raised from a PIPE (private investment in public equity) round to complete the business combination. At the close of the transaction CIIC stock will change its name to Arrival and the new symbol on Nasdaq composite will be ARVL. Arrival specializes in making electric buses and vans. It also has a unique, almost fully automated manufacturing process in what it calls “microfactories.”InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Arrival already has two microfactories, with one in the U.K. and the other in Rock Hill, South Carolina. The company is in the process of making electric buses there and will go into full production mode once the deal closes. The company shows pictures of its two microfactories in a very interesting slide presentation that accompanied the announcement. 10 Best Stocks to Buy for Investors Under 30 Moreover, Arrival already has $1.2 billion in orders, including 10,000 EV vans for UPS (NYSE:UPS). Once the deal closes Arrival will receive $669 million in net cash and will have no debt. This is all that it needs to become profitable by 2023. The Deal and Its Value Once the merger closes, CIIC stock (ARVL stock) will have 606.179 million shares outstanding. This can be seen on page 42 of the slide presentation. Therefore, since CIIC stock has risen to $25.91 since the announcement, it now has a pro forma market capitalization of $15.706 billion (i.e., $25.91 times 606.179 million pro forma shares outstanding). Now to get the pro forma enterprise value we subtract the $669 million in cash, for an EV of $15.037 billion. This is 178% higher than the $5.392 billion enterprise value used in the public announcement or the slide presentation on page 41. However, I believe that CIIC stock is now overvalued by at least 26%. Here is why. On page 41 of the presentation, the company estimates that it will make $14.1 billion in revenue by the end of 2024. That implies that Arrival’s EV-sales multiple will be more than 1x. For example, $15.037 billion in EV (its present pro forma enterprise value) divided by $14.1 billion in pro forma sales by 2024, a ratio of 107%. What CIIC Stock Is Worth Today We can compare Arrival with its peers. For example, on page 44 of the deck, the average EV-sales multiple of its peers is 1.3x sales. The EV value for CIIC stock (ARVL stock) should be $18.99 billion (i.e., 1.3 x $14.1 billion). In addition, we have to deduct the $669 million. Why? On the one hand, one can assume that the $669 million will be used up by 2024. On the other hand, it highly likely that the company will be profitable and/or it may have raised additional cash by then. Therefore, the pro forma market value should be $18.33 billion ($18.99 billion minus $669 million). This puts its per-share value at $30.24 (i.e., $18.33 billion / 606.179 million shares. That represents a potential gain of 16.7% above today’s price of $25.91. But is it really worth this on a present value basis? Discounting To the Present The year 2024 is a long time in the future to compare Arrival’s theoretical revenue and value with today’s CIIC stock price. We have to discount the 2024 forecast value to the present. For example, using a 15% annual discount rate the present value factor compounds out to 57.175%. Therefore, the $18.33 billion market value is worth $10.48 billion today. That works out to $17.29 per share. However, using a more typical 10% discount rate, the PV factor is 68.3% and its value is $12.52 billion. That works out to $20.66 per share. Using a 10% discount rate is OK since Arrival’s enterprise value by 2024 will be likely higher than forecast, well above $19 billion. This is true especially since Arrival is likely to have taken on more debt by then. The bottom line is that CIIC stock, at $25.91 is 26% higher than the company’s implied calculation of its own value. On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here. More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post CIIC Stock Is Now Overvalued Before Its Merger With Arrival appeared first on InvestorPlace.
InvestorPlace · 5d ago
Dont Chase CIIG Merger in the EV Stock Buying Frenzy
As EV (electric vehicle) stocks remain red hot, it’s no shock investors are bidding up CIIG Merger (NASDAQ:CIIC). The SPAC, or blank-check company, has made a deal to acquire EV van and bus startup Arrival. But, while Arrival already seems to have “arrived,” chasing CIIC stock now, as it goes parabolic, may not be the best move. Source: Shutterstock How so? With megatrends on their side, EV stocks have a lot of potential. But, with the excitement over newly public EV makers, the ones that have gone public in recent months may be ready for a correction. Sure, as strong enthusiasm for EV stocks continues, these names could head higher in the near term. But, chances are this bullishness will start to fade, and most of the recent EV SPACs will pullback. That’s the case for CIIC (soon to be ARVL) stock.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips So, what’s the call? With the high likelihood shares will fall back from here, the best move is to sit this one out for now. It may offer opportunity at lower price levels. At today’s prices? Not so much. Why Investors Are Excited about CIIC Stock Arrival, CIIG Merger’s acquisition target, may not be a household name in the U.S. But, in its home market of the United Kingdom, the company has made a name for itself. Already one of the U.K.’s most valuable startups, the EV maker has received backing from several well-known financial and industrial companies. 10 Best Stocks to Buy for Investors Under 30 Unlike most of the EV companies going public via SPACs, Arrival isn’t going after the passenger-vehicle market. Instead, it sees opportunity in electric buses and vans. And, with its order backlog topping $1.2 billion, right out of the gate it seems this upstart is “crushing it.” Based on company projections, by 2024 it could be generating $14.1 billion in sales, and $3.2 billion in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). This alone may be why investors have bid up CIIC stock 144% since news of the deal broke. However, the future is yet to be written. Plenty of EV companies this year whetted investors’ appetites with blockbuster sales and earnings estimates several years out. But, far from a slam dunk, companies like Arrival still need to prove themselves. In addition, this year’s enthusiasm for EV stocks will eventually cool down. And, while that means the potential for near-term declines, it could also mean a more favorable entry point down the road. There’s Big Potential, But Shares Could Sell-Off From Here There’s no denying a name like Arrival has the potential to scale into a massive, profitable enterprise. Based on the aforementioned revenue and EBITDA projections, it’s no shock investors have already assigned this company, which has yet to deliver a single vehicle, a multi-billion-dollar valuation. But, projections are not inevitable. Based on its current timeline, it’ll be years before we see the first signs of success. A lot could change between now and then. Also, with scores of startups and established companies looking to capitalize on the EV megatrend, this company’s pathway to $14 billion in annual sales is anything but a slam dunk. With this in mind, it may not be wise to chase CIIC stock today, as shares skyrocket ahead of its just-announced merger with Arrival. Sure, between now and when the deal closes (anticipated to be in the first quarter of 2021), shares could continue climbing. However, a correction in this stock, and almost all of the other EV SPAC stocks, seems very likely. The long-term bull case remains strong for many of them. But, in the near term, valuation concerns could start to have an impact. Coupled with speculators cashing out their quick gains, it’s easy to see a big pullback for most of the names in this sector. Keep in mind I’m not bearish on this company. Far from it, as I see strong opportunity with its strong pre-order numbers. But, with this sector getting ahead of itself, shares could fall back to prior price levels. EV SPACs Are Set to Pullback, and So Will This One CIIG Merger (soon to be Arrival) may be the latest hot EV play coming down the assembly line. But, while its projections look very promising, after the recent run-up, jumping in now may not be the best move. There’s a good chance CIIC stock and many other EV stocks sell-off after their strong recent performances. In other words, why buy now, when you can get in later at a lower price? With plenty of time to enter a long-term position in CIIC stock, don’t chase it at today’s prices. On the date of publication, neither Matt McCall nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in the article. Matthew McCall left Wall Street toactually help investors –by getting them into the world’s biggest, most revolutionary trends BEFORE anyone else. Click here to see what Matt has up his sleeve now. More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post Don’t Chase CIIG Merger in the EV Stock Buying Frenzy appeared first on InvestorPlace.
InvestorPlace · 5d ago
NBAC Stock: 14 Things to Know Ahead of the Nuvve SPAC Merger
Earlier in November, electric vehicle charging play Nuvve announced it was coming public via a special purpose acquisition company. Now, it looks like investors are ready to dive in. Shares of the SPAC, Newborn Acquisition (NASDAQ:NBAC), are surging higher by more than 50%. So what do you need to know about NBAC stock? And why is it so hot ahead of the Nuvve SPAC merger? Source: Shutterstock With those questions in mind, here are 14 things investors should know about NBAC stock now. Newborn Acquisition launched its initial public offering in February 2020. At the time, it raised $50 million by selling 5 million shares at $10 each. Investors should note that Newborn Acquisition is a Chinese SPAC. When it came public, it said it wanted to focus on businesses in either the U.S. or Asia. Importantly for NBAC stock, the blank-check company is incorporated in the Cayman Islands. Perhaps the biggest news for shareholders came a few weeks ago. Newborn Acquisition announced it would bring Nuvve, an EV charging company, public. Unlike rivals Blink Charging (NASDAQ:BLNK) and ChargePoint (NYSE:SBE), Nuvve offers vehicle-to-grid solutions. This means that when cars are plugged in and not in use, they can contribute back into the grid. Also importantly, many industry experts think this will help boost consumer adoption while also helping the power grid manage the growing presence of EVs. There is also interest in V2G solutions to help power commercial and municipal EV fleets. Nuvve currently has found success in the European market, where V2G solutions are popular. When it comes public, Nuvve will trade on the Nasdaq Exchange. It will then trade under the ticker NVVE. Additionally, the combined company could have an enterprise value as high as $130 million. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips What You Need to Know About NBAC Stock Broadly, investors have been very interested in electric vehicle stocks and all sorts of adjacent plays. This has taken Nuvve rivals Blink Charging and ChargePoint to new heights. Will Nuvve and NBAC stock continue to benefit from the same catalysts? It looks likely, especially as there is no real news driving Newborn Acquisition up in the market today. Investors should also know about a recent announcement from the company. Last week, Nuvve and Newborn Acquisition shared an exciting development. Nuvve and Lion Electric are forming a V2G partnership. What does that mean? Well, Canada-based Lion Electric focuses on developing heavy-duty electric vehicles like all-electric school buses. Now, it wants to work with Nuvve to make sure its fleets incorporate V2G solutions as a standard feature. Why does that matter? Well, a large part of the thesis for NBAC stock is that Nuvve will shine in the realm of electric vehicle fleets. As it looks for new customers ahead of the Nuvve SPAC merger, it is important that it is gaining some fans in Canada. Just how meaningful the Lion Electric deal will be remains to be seen, but it is certainly a reason for optimism. Keep an eye on NBAC stock. It is joining other EV SPAC peers like CIIG Merger (NASDAQ:CIIC) in massive gains this week. On the date of publication, Sarah Smith did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.  Sarah Smith is a Web Content Producer for  More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post NBAC Stock: 14 Things to Know Ahead of the Nuvve SPAC Merger appeared first on InvestorPlace.
InvestorPlace · 5d ago
NIO Limited, XPeng among major consumer cyclical premarket losers' pack
Hepion Pharmaceuticals (HEPA)-28% after prices equity offering at $1.50.Fuel Tech (FTEK) -25%.ECMOHO (MOHO) -24%.Ideanomics (IDEX) -17%.Nikola (NKLA) -15% on concerns over GM deal, gauntlet of stock.Blink Charging (BLNK) -12%.Li Auto (LI) -12%  Chinese EV stocks
Seekingalpha · 5d ago
The 'Arrival' Is Coming. Is the Excitement Warrant-ed?
Shares of CIIG Merger Corp. are driving higher after it said it would buy electric vehicle company Arrival, so let's look under the hood....CIIC · 6d ago
ACB, RIG, CLNE and MARA among premarket gainers
Fuel Tech (FTEK) +115%.SPI Energy (SPI) +64% as company delivers two electric shuttle buses to the city of Santa Cruz.The Goldfield (GV) +63% as company to be acquired by First Reserve for $7.00 per
Seekingalpha · 6d ago
CIIC leads financial gainers, AHT and NTP among losers
Gainers: CIIG Merger (CIIC) +32%. Marathon Patent Group (MARA) +32%. Front Yard Residential (RESI) +22%. Switchback Energy Acquisition (SBE) +22%.Losers: Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) -15%. IRSA Propiedades Comerciales (IRCP) -13%.
Seekingalpha · 11/23 18:14
AHT, FCEL, AIM and MARA among midday movers
Gainers: DPW Holdings (DPW) +179%.Ideanomics (IDEX) +65%.Fuel Tech (FTEK) +61%.Greenland Technologies (GTEC) +52%.Kaixin Auto (KXIN) +52%.FuelCell Energy (FCEL) +45%.CIIG Merger (CIIC) +37%.Graybug Vision (GRAY) +36%.Beam Global (BEEM) +35%.Marathon Patent (MARA) +33%.Losers: Bellerophon Therapeutics
Seekingalpha · 11/23 17:42
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Institutions: 53
Institutional Holdings: 17.02M
% Owned: 52.61%
Shares Outstanding: 32.34M
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About CIIC
CIIG Merger Corp. is a blank check company. The Company is formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The Company has not selected any specific business combination target and intends to pursue an initial business combination target in any stage of its corporate evolution or in any industry or sector. It intends to focus its search in the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) industries
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