72 Days Of Uncertainty
This is a weekly series focused on analyzing the previous week’s economic data releases.The objective is to concentrate on leading indicators of economic activity to determine whether the economy is strengthening or weakening, and the rate of inflation is increasing or decreasing.This week I will examine construction spending, the ISM manufacturing and services indices, weekly unemployment claims and the jobs report for October.
Seekingalpha · 11/10 22:41
In Which I Thank Pfizer For My Latest Dose Of Humility (Technically Speaking For 11/9)
The SPY and IWM took in cash last week; money left the treasury market.Pfizer announced very successful vaccine results.The markets rallied on the Pfizer news.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 23:52
Sigh Of Relief
The big news this morning isn't about the election.It's about a light at the end of the virus tunnel.And stocks are breathing a massive sigh of relief.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 18:42
Ephemeral Extreme Election Euphoria
As a result of eager investor anticipation of a new U.S. political configuration, the shares of risk assets have generally climbed during the past several trading days.The primary difference between the February-March 2020 correction and the current one is that this one is developing much more slowly.I am currently sporting my heaviest net short percentage since August 2008, even more than at the beginning of September 2020.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 14:11
Up Late
The options market is moving the stock market.Known unknowns will not hurt the market substantially.We are in an era where it is only market events that are not hedged that hurt the market and the worst events will be liquidity events.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 06:25
Making Sense Of Last Week's Market Rally
The short-term market direction is higher.I also think that the amount of upside is limited by stretched valuations, a worsening pandemic, a contested election, an ongoing recession, and a lack of needed stimulus.I don't see a return to the March low point.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 05:58
Animal Spirits Come Roaring Back Post-Election
I wrote previously that risk sentiment was very likely to improve dramatically after the election.Biden is not as "market-unfriendly" as many make him out to be. The rally in equities when he was leading Trump was clear to see.Now that weekend reports have largely confirmed his presidency, market focus will return to liquidity.Global central banks are expanding their balance sheet size at rapid pace, and we should expect a stimulus package from the European Central Bank by year-end.Risk here is for Trump to refuse to cede power, which will delay the passing of any stimulus bill in Congress.
Seekingalpha · 11/09 04:48
What Could A Divided Government Mean For U.S. Stocks?
The prospects for a major fiscal stimulus package have decreased, but other supportive factors remain in place.As we wait for the votes to be counted, and perhaps recounted, in some key states, we've gotten some questions about the potential for a divided government and what it could mean for markets if the White House and Congress are split between parties.I believe that investors, at a minimum, can rest easy knowing that meaningful change is probably not forthcoming.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 18:45
U.S. 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Opportunities In Equity Sectors
Considering the United States is the world's largest economy, many equity investors across the globe have been watching the US election with interest.Potential policy changes could have different implications for different market sectors.Our Head of Equities Stephen Dover joined Templeton Global Equity Group CIO Alan Bartlett and Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Manager Grant Bowers to discuss what the latest election results likely mean for the technology and health care sectors.They also share their thoughts on potential investment opportunities in other sectors in a global landscape defined by COVID-19.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 18:11
Week Ahead - What Next After Election Mayhem?
I think it's safe to say, last week more than lived up to expectations. We may never see a US election like it again. What is remarkable is how relaxed traders have been throughout.Many expect the central bank to announce further easing measures in December, once the election is resolved and with new economic projections to guide them.China Trade Balance and FX Reserves released tomorrow. Both may slow due to the long October holiday, but it will take a big downward surprise in exports to trip up the bullish China story on Monday morning.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 18:10
Market Surges As Election Turns Into Optimal Outcome
After reducing equity risk in portfolios over the last few weeks, we suggested last week the "selling" was likely overdone.It was quite the reversal. The rally pushed the market back above the 50-dma and lower highs' previous downtrend. Such sets the market up for a retest of all-time highs next week.However, before you get all excited and go throwing your money into the market, you may want to step back and re-evaluate your risk.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 14:20
Weekly Commentary: Critical Juncture
We've grown accustomed to the "new normal": Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships.It is deeply disappointing to witness an election where seemingly everyone comes out of the process only further disillusioned.This is a critical juncture in our nation's history. Let's agree to disagree on many issues. Let's be civil.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 12:48
October Jobs Report: Extremely Strong Monthly Gains Overall, But At This Rate Still Another 18 Months From Full Jobs Recovery
This was an extremely strong report.About the only negative was the big decline in education jobs, which may have been a quirk of seasonality.Everything else was positive.
Seekingalpha · 11/08 07:05
U.S. 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Stimulus And Thinking Differently About Risk
Investors await the US presidential election's final outcome.Our Head of Equities Stephen Dover joined Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions' Gene Podkaminer to discuss why they think it is increasingly vital for a divided US Congress to provide additional fiscal stimulus to get the US economy back on track amid the COVID-19 pandemic.They also share their views on how certain macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and growth, as well as fiscal and monetary policy, could affect potential investments across global asset classes.
Seekingalpha · 11/07 12:33
Progressive Mandate Weakened
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, we are confident that global economic growth will accelerate.Our portfolios have continued to shift to companies with more economic sensitivity, great managements with winnings strategies and competitive advantages, rising operating margins, profits, cash flow, and free cash flow that will be used to enhance shareholder value and make bolt-on acquisitions.We are emphasizing digitalization, the cloud, and 5G technology.We still own a few retailers that are benefitting from their competitive strength and online capability.Finally, continue to sell bonds of all durations.
Seekingalpha · 11/07 11:00
U.S. 2020 Election Investment Pulse: No Blue Wave Lessens Policy Uncertainty
The race for US president has not yet been decided.Though there appears to be some certainty over Congressional makeup, with a split maintained between Democrat and Republican majorities in the two chambers.Our Katie Klingensmith talks with our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, and co-CIO of ClearBridge, Scott Glasser for their thoughts on why this might be a good thing for equities.
Seekingalpha · 11/05 08:21
A Short-Term Bottom Might Be In (Technically Speaking For 11/3)
The latest Markit Economics PMIs are mostly positive.The Reserve Bank of Australia entered the realm of QE.The markets might be reversing.
Seekingalpha · 11/03 23:25
Technically Speaking: Rules To Navigate A Contentious Election
Investors need a clear set of rules to navigate a contentious election.Ample warning signs suggest the risks of having excessive equity exposure to the market outweighs the potential for reward.At least for now.
Seekingalpha · 11/03 12:01
GDP Figures & Election Jitters
Is the re-opening economic rebound that has occurred a V-shaped recovery that will continue expanding, or is the recovery that has occurred since March a temporary dead-cat bounce?For many people, the ultimate answer depends on the outcome of the impending presidential election.Although the election jitters have many stock market participants on pins and needles, history reminds us that politics have little to do with the long-term direction of the stock market and financial markets.
Seekingalpha · 11/03 09:44
Jobless Claims: Continued Slow Progress
This week’s new jobless claims continued to decline further below 800,000, and continued claims also made a new pandemic low.Generally, the situation with layoffs has continued to improve at a slow pace.I am concerned – and indeed expect – that jobless claims will start to rise again in the next couple months.
Seekingalpha · 11/03 09:35
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