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A Better Q3 And Clear Optimism In Most Markets With Growing Concerns Over Second Wave Of COVID-19
Without any doubt, Q2 of 2020 was the worst quarter on record for global trade, and this is very likely to apply to 2020 as a whole.China (mainland) is the only top economy showing clear and consistent signs of recovery in Q2 and Q3; the results for September point to a recovery in South Korea as well.Stronger recovery in global real GDP is still expected for Q2 2021; the forecast, unfortunately, depends critically on the ability to deal with the potential waves of the pandemic.
Seekingalpha · 10/21/2020 13:04
OECD: Most Economies Will Remain Well Below 2019 Output Levels By End Of 2021
According to third-quarter forecasts by the OECD, by the end of 2021, most economies, including Canada, will have a level of output that remains well below that of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected a year ago.By the end of 2021, America's economy is forecast to be the same size as it was in 2019, China's is expected to be 10% larger, while Europe and Japan's are forecast to remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level of output for several years.More good reasons to invest in domestic manufacturing and the production of essential goods in Canada.
Seekingalpha · 10/15/2020 10:39
A Bridge To Economic Recovery: Be Aware Of Financial Stability Risks
The rebound in asset prices and the easing in global financial conditions have benefited not only advanced economies, but also emerging markets.Policy measures have allowed firms to cope with cash shortages experienced during economic shutdowns by taking on more debt.Looking ahead, policymakers should carefully sequence their response to build a safe bridge to recovery.
Seekingalpha · 10/14/2020 11:41
A Long, Uneven And Uncertain Ascent
We continue to project a deep recession in 2020. Global growth is projected to be -4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percent compared to our June update.In 2021, growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 percent, -0.2 percent below our June projection.The divergence in income prospects between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (excluding China) triggered by this pandemic is projected to worsen.Investments in health, digital infrastructure, green infrastructure and education can help achieve productive, inclusive and sustainable growth. And expanding the safety net where gaps exist can ensure the most vulnerable are protected while supporting near-term activity.
Seekingalpha · 10/14/2020 10:47
Fiera Capital Global Asset Allocation - October 2020 Market Update
Global equity markets lost some steam in September and posted their first monthly decline since the pandemic-induced meltdown in March.Factories and services are able to reopen for business in a smooth fashion, while government efforts to bridge the income gap stemming from the economic stop prove successful in alleviating.The good news, however, is that the monetary and fiscal impulse will remain firmly in place under this dire economic scenario - which inevitably helps to alleviate the economic damage.
Seekingalpha · 10/13/2020 14:01
Third-Quarter 2020 Market Commentary: Despite Uncertainty Around U.S. Election And Hard Brexit, Hope Springs Eternal For COVID-19 Vaccine And Government Relief
Global markets pulled back from a torrid pace set throughout July and August. The MSCI All-Country World Index was down 3.2% for the month.The first two months saw rallies in the global reflation trade only to see investors back away from this trade in September.Japan equities rallied following reports of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway purchase of Japanese trading companies (value play) despite the unexpected resignation of prime minister Shinzo Abe.Europe lagged due to rising risks of a hard Brexit as prospects for a post-Brexit trade deal were threatened with U.K. Parliament’s passage of a bill targeting the Northern Ireland/Irish border.Precious metals came under pressure as negative real interest rates appear to have a reached a floor, while commodities were hurt by a pullback in oil prices over concerns of waning demand and OPEC overproduction.
Seekingalpha · 10/09/2020 16:43
Tradeweb Government Bond Update - September 2020
August's government debt sell-off proved to be short-lived.The German 10-year Bund yield fell by nearly 12.5 basis points to close at -0.53%.The AIG Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index declined 2.6 points in September for the second consecutive month.
Seekingalpha · 10/08/2020 13:33
PMI Surveys Signal Upturn In Business Investment Spending Worldwide
Output growth reported in 18 out of 25 sectors in September, led by autos and parts markers.Tourism and recreation remain the hardest hit.Rising equipment and machinery spending hints at revival in global business investment spending.
Seekingalpha · 10/08/2020 11:35
Rethink Any Assumptions About International Small And Mid Caps
Higher quality at a lower price is not a combination that can usually be found anywhere.Investors in US equities face a dichotomy when it comes to market cap asset classes.While US investors recognize the potential growth and diversification benefits US SMIDs offer - with 13.3% of their portfolios in them - they seem to have overlooked international SMIDs.
Seekingalpha · 10/07/2020 22:33
Global Recession Risks
The global economy is experiencing its deepest recession since 1946.We project that world real GDP will decline by 4.8% in 2020, a far worse outcome than the 1.7% contraction in 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.As countries remove restrictions on activities, the global economy is recovering.However, new outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus and the likelihood that a vaccine will not be widely available before mid-2021 make any assessment of the economic outlook challenging.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 14:35
Global PMI Signals Strong End To Third Quarter As New Order Inflows Accelerate
Global PMI signals further growth of manufacturing and services output but rate of expansion eases.Employment returns to growth amid rising orders.Outlook dampened by COVID-19 worries.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 14:26
Global Equities: Finding Broader Paths Through Narrow Markets
During the third quarter, global equities rose by 6.7% in local currency terms, with most markets in positive territory.There are good reasons why ultralow interest rates and spending stimulus should continue to support stocks, in our view.For investors who haven't held large positions in the US growth giants, this year has been frustrating.Increasing concern about the dominance of the giant technology and technology-driven consumer companies is raising the risk of a regulatory crackdown.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 11:42
International Equity ETF Q3 Overview And Outlook
Being the first to be hit by the pandemic and the first to emerge following a relatively successful curbing of the outbreak, China is the only major economy likely to be able to register a positive growth rate for the current year (+2%).Apart from the trend seen in the Chinese economy and several other Asian economies, the pace of the recovery has faded through the quarter.International equity markets advanced robustly in the first two months of the quarter and then retreated in September, registering about a 6.3% total return gain for the quarter as measured by the MSCI ACWX ex USA Index. Very low interest rates and stimulative fiscal policies are underpinning these markets.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 11:35
China Liquidity May Not Be Enough To Fight Winter Depression
Global equities look overall fragile as we are entering the winter period.Chances of a second lockdown are gradually increasing, which would lead to a complete disaster for economic fundamentals.China credit impulse and excess liquidity have been rising in the past two years, which has usually been a good signal for risky assets.However, China stimulus may not be enough to sustain the momentum in the coming months.
Seekingalpha · 10/05/2020 20:00
3 Updated Market Themes For 2020
Let's assess where the economy is today.When the pandemic hit, global economic activity was put on pause, and the initial shock was sudden and very deep.But now that we're a few months in, we asked Elga Bartsch, Head of Macro Research for the BlackRock Investment Institute, for her take on what we've seen since.
Seekingalpha · 10/01/2020 15:43
2020 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: The Old New Cycle
The global market is in the early recovery phase of the business cycle following the COVID-19 recession. This implies an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest-rate growth - an environment that usually favors equities over bonds. But after such a rapid rebound, an equity market pullback would not be surprising.We believe the market looks set for a rotation away from tech/growth leadership toward cyclical/value stocks. This also implies a rotation toward non-U.S. stocks, with Europe and emerging markets likely the main beneficiaries, in our opinion.Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process scores global equities as slightly expensive, sentiment as neutral and the cycle as supportive. This leaves us neutral on the near-term outlook, but moderately positive for the medium term, with slightly expensive valuations offset by the positive cycle outlook.
Seekingalpha · 09/30/2020 03:11
World Is Waiting For Stimulus As Global Trade And Growth Will Remain Sluggish In The Coming Months
The weak trend in global trade and growth will not be enough to support risky assets such as equities in the coming months.The recent 10%+ consolidation in equities clearly shows how vulnerable is the market currently 'without' central banks and governments' help.Leading indicators such as South Korea exports not showing any sign of positive momentum for global equities in the near term.Global uncertainty and investors' fear will keep price volatility elevated for the rest of the year.
Seekingalpha · 09/25/2020 15:02
Interesting Discoveries In Relative Sector Valuations
The upsurge in forward PE multiples to decade highs since March, particularly in the US, has raised legitimate concerns about the risks of elevated valuations.With few exceptions, global sector forward PE multiples have also reached some of the highest absolute levels in 10 years.Despite the big move in absolute valuations, there are four industry groups that are not only trading at discounts relative to the market but also to their own long-term average relatives.
Seekingalpha · 09/24/2020 13:41
Navigating The Macro Environment
The current environment certainly opens up a lot of opportunities for fundamental value, and it also forces a lot of navigation.Emerging markets have great potential to bounce back as the world economy recovers and as oil demand comes back online.We certainly look a lot at emerging markets. These are markets that have been hit hard by this crisis-having to do a lot with weak healthcare systems, problems dealing with this crisis, as well as oil export dependency.
Seekingalpha · 09/22/2020 11:41
EPS Revisions Flashing An Amber Warning
The decisive rebound in the EPS revision cycle from the pandemic lows in June has provided much of the firepower behind this summer's risk rally.The downtrend in 2020 EPS forecasts appears to have bottomed, while 2021 numbers have swung higher.With hopes for a robust EPS recovery next year still riding high, any further deterioration or a negative turn in the revision cycle could create headwinds for markets.
Seekingalpha · 09/21/2020 22:23
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