Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure
US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.
Seeking Alpha · 9h ago
The Best Tech And Energy Stocks Should Remain Strong
Seeking Alpha · 14h ago
Weekly Report: what happened at EGF last week (0715-0719)?
Weekly Report · 1d ago
Has The Neutral Rate Of Interest Increased?
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
When Will The Fed Cut
When will the Fed cut rates? The Fed Funds rate is currently above T-Bill market rates. The Fed will cut its rate once the T- bill rate declines and stabilizes. Todd Sullivan sees evidence of a recession hedge by institutional investors for which they have shorted T-Bills. He says the Fed has a history of missing recession signals.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Rates Spark: ECB Unlikely To Satisfy Doves
European Central Bank is not likely to cut at this meeting and will likely refrain from committing to future cuts. Markets are already pricing in two more 25bp cuts for this year. In the US, the momentum is stronger towards a rate cut. In France, the political challenges continue to evolve but markets remain unmoved.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Could The Fed Cut Interest Rates Twice In 2024?
US disinflation may lead to a third-quarter Fed rate cut. Recent data on US inflation shows that the disin inflationary process is picking up steam. I believe the Federal Reserve will cut before the end of the third quarter. I see room for more than one rate cut in 2024. S&P 500 companies are forecasted to deliver their highest year-over-year earnings growth.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist)
3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist) Cullen Roche: Raising interest rates does not cause inflation. He says the Great Financial Crisis created some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. In 2008, the Fed cut rates to 0% and many expected this to create hyperinflation risk.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
What The U.S. Election Could Mean For Deficits, Debt And The Yield Curve
Government borrowing and the national debt are barely mentioned in the US election campaign. The US government is borrowing the equivalent of 6% of GDP and national debt totals $35tr. Failure to change trajectory risks further debt downgrades, market volatility and higher borrowing costs. Fiscal sustainability of the US is being questioned.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Rates Spark: Pricing Of ECB Cuts Facing Limits
Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched. Markets are now pricing in 48bp of ECB cuts in 2024, just shy of two full 25bp cuts. Three UK rate cuts still on the table this year. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for later today.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Economic Update - Q2 2024
Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Economic Update - Q2 2024. The US economy is still growing but growth has slowed and signs of weakness are apparent. First quarter US real GDP figures came in at a 1.4% annual growth rate. Low savings rates and rising credit card delinquencies bear watching for a potential pullback in consumer spending. The Housing market has felt the effects of higher interest rates.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
How Are Financial Markets Really Doing?
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Why The Fed's Picking Up Speed Toward Rate Cuts
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 14:40
Fed Rate Cuts - A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds?
Fed Rate Cuts - A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds? Lance Roberts: Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. He says the odds of a 0.25% cut to the Fed rate are now 90%. Since January 2022, the market has rallied on hopes of rate cuts. Roberts says investors should consider reducing equity risk and increasing exposure to Treasury bonds.
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 13:20
Rates Spark: Trump Assassination Attempt Contributes To Steeper Curves
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 12:00
Velocity Of Money Is No Longer A Huge Inflation Factor
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 11:30
The Fed Dithers While Inflation Withers
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 06:20
Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear'
Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear' ahead of many recessions in US economic history, the yield curve has gone negative - or "inverted" The 2-10 spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields is now at minus-27 basis points. The MoneyShow Chart of the Week for July 15, 2024 is Mike Larson's chart of the week.
Seeking Alpha · 07/15 18:05
Is The Fed Going To Cut Rates Soon? Guess Who Thinks So
Seeking Alpha · 07/15 15:20
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