New Research Predicts EVs Will Outpace ICE Vehicle By 2030

Benzinga · 09/15/2023 10:35

The end of the internal combustion age has begun, new research reveals.

What Happened: According to research by Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), EV sales are growing exponentially, and companies are already building enough battery and EV factories for EVs to dominate global car sales by 2030.

The research said EVs will account for between 62% and 86% of sales by 2030, adding that in China, it would be at least 90%. Further, price parity between ICE vehicles and EVs will be reached by the end of the decade in every major car segment, the study said, thanks to falling battery costs. Battery costs have fallen by 88% since 2010, the institute noted.

However, the report noted that there is still a need to upgrade electricity infrastructure, deploy more charging networks, recycle batteries, and solve a range of complex challenges to meet these expectations.

Why It Matters: The battery is the most expensive part of an EV, causing EVs to be generally more expensive than combustion engine vehicles. The research forecasts that this cost will fall to $60-$90 per kWh by 2030, and battery energy density will rise by 4% annually. Companies like Tesla, CATL, and BYD have larger run sizes and will hence have lower price points, too, it added.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sees EVs accounting for 67% of new light-duty vehicle sales and 46% of medium-duty vehicle sales by 2032. However, the country has not ascertained a date for ending the sale of combustion engines in its entirety.

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