CEE MARKETS-FX eases as markets eye week of cenbank meetings
CEE MARKETS-FX eases as markets eye week of cenbank meetings
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, May 2 (Reuters) - Most central European currencies eased on Monday in thin trade as markets in London were closed for a bank holiday and traders looked ahead to a week with central bank meetings in the United States, Poland and the Czech Republic.
"This week's meetings of the MPC and the US FOMC will be of key importance for the zloty trading in May," PKO Bank wrote in a client note.
"We believe that the lack of a hawkish surprise from the Fed, which would be a rate hike of more than 50 bps, could support the quotations of emerging markets currencies versus the dollar."
The dollar held near a 20-year high on Monday as investors expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates by 50 basis points when it meets. nL5N2WU0YF
The recent strengthening of the dollar put pressure on CEE currencies and weakened them last week.
On Monday the Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.23% lower, trading at 4.6813 per euro. The Czech crown EURCZK= eased 0.24% to 24.640 versus the common currency.
Central bankers in Poland and the Czech Republic are meeting on Thursday and both banks are widely expected to continue with rate hikes as they fight soaring inflation.
Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged down 0.01% and was trading at 378.45 to the euro.
"The massive strengthening of the dollar pushed the forint lower last week, as far as 380 per euro, but I think investors have repositioned themselves since then and I expect the forint to hold stable for a while," an FX trader in Budapest said.
"I don't think the Fed's decision will really move the forint's rate, the hike is priced in. Markets will eye the comments for the Fed's view on inflation."
PMI data published on Monday showed that the Ukraine conflict and surging prices dragged manufacturing sentiment lower in the Czech Republic and Poland in April.
Hungarian PMI, worked out under a different methodology, showed production rose and stayed on the side of expansion for a 14th month in a row. nL2N2WU076
Most stocks in the region eased, tracking European peers that fell as crucial China data fueled market speculation of a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. nL3N2WU0MV
Stocks in Warsaw .WIG20 were 1.38% lower while Prague .PX weakened 1.17%. Budapest .BUX slid 1.66% while Bucharest .BETI was little moved.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1041 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
bid | close | change | in 2022 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.6400 | 24.5800 | -0.24% | +0.94% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 378.4500 | 378.4000 | -0.01% | -2.39% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.6813 | 4.6704 | -0.23% | -1.93% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9480 | 4.9500 | +0.04% | +0.00% |
EURHRK= | Croatian kuna | EURHRK= | 7.5620 | 7.5665 | +0.06% | -0.59% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.6300 | 117.6700 | +0.03% | -0.04% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2022 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1317.99 | 1333.6300 | -1.17% | |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 42749.31 | 43469.84 | -1.66% | -15.72% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 1832.40 | 1858.12 | -1.38% | -19.17% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 12722.92 | 12723.23 | -0.00% | -2.59% |
.SBITOP | Ljubljana | .SBITOP | 1171.97 | 1170.06 | +0.16% | -6.65% |
.CRBEX | Zagreb | .CRBEX | 2126.15 | 2129.32 | -0.15% | +2.25% |
.BELEX15 | Belgrade | .BELEX15 | 827.16 | 827.16 | +0.00% | +0.78% |
.SOFIX | Sofia | .SOFIX | 619.03 | 619.03 | +0.00% | -2.62% |
Yield | Yield | Spread | Daily | |||
(bid) | change | vs Bund | change in | |||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 5.2220 | -0.0060 | +500bps | -5bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.6710 | 0.0320 | +403bps | +7bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.3420 | -0.0280 | +343bps | +0bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 6.6520 | -0.1310 | +643bps | -17bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 6.9250 | 0.0670 | +628bps | +10bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 6.4270 | 0.0280 | +552bps | +5bps |
FORWARD | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 6.09 | 6.09 | 6.02 | 5.47 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.90 | 8.22 | 8.32 | 6.76 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 7.66 | 7.69 | 7.66 | 6.05 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
(Additional reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
((komuves.anita@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 70 795 8815))
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