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LIVE MARKETS-Is it time for a September mourn?

reuters.com · 09/01/2021 09:04
LIVE MARKETS-Is it time for a September mourn?

U.S equity index futures point to modest opening gains

U.S. August ADP National Employment 374k vs 613k estimate

Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.4%

Dollar, crude dip; gold, bitcoin rise

US 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.30%

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IS TIME FOR A SEPTEMBER MOURN? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

The S&P 500 .SPX rose for a 7th straight month in August, which is its longest such streak since a 10-month run of gains ending in January 2018. The benchmark index advanced 2.9% last month and is now up 20.4% year-to-date, which has it on track for its biggest yearly rise since a 28.9% advance in 2019.

That said, the S&P 500 is about to enter its worst month of the year.

Using Refinitiv data back to 1928, September has been the worst month, on average, for the S&P 500. It's average change is a decline of 1%:



Of note, through Tuesday, it has now been 342 calendar days since the SPX last ended a decline of more than 5% on a closing basis.

Interestingly enough, that decline developed in the wake of the S&P 500's September 2, 2020 high, from which it slid 9.6% into its September 23, 2020 low.

Additionally, from 1928 to 2020, there were 31 Augusts with a gain of more than 2%. However, in those instances, the S&P 500's average change for the rest of the year was a gain of only about 0.5%.

Therefore, whether this September lives up to its reputation or not, the broad-market average may face a struggle from now to the end of the year. nL1N2Q20R6


(Terence Gabriel)

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SPXMonthlyAvgret09012021https://tmsnrt.rs/3tbXDNN

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)