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LIVE MARKETS-Equities: correction time, but then Europe

05/10/2021 08:11
LIVE MARKETS-Equities: correction time, but then Europe

European flat after hitting fresh record high

Miners lead the pack, up 2.5%

Tech stocks worst performers, down 1.3%

Fast-food chain Greggs jumps after raising outlook

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Bubble or no bubble. Correction or no correction. These are some of the dilemmas investors face as equity indexes continue hovering around all-time highs.

According to UBS, a correction is likely and will be a potential market entry point, while Europe could steal the stage as "a lagging cyclical."

Many sentiment indicators -- such as the 'put to call' ratio or 'Bull minor Bear' spread -- "are flashing caution."

But it might be time to switch to Europe, of course, after a possible correction.

"The second derivative of economic data seems to support Europe with some lead indicators decelerating in the U.S. and accelerating in Europe," UBS analysts say in a research note.

The EPS growth differential should work the same way.

UBS analysts forecast 50% EPS growth in 2021 and 14% in 2022 in the continent. The upgrade cycle is not over, they say, recalling that we had 6 months of upgrades, and post-global financial crisis, there were 20.

"Flows from the U.S. into Europe remain close to zero but are showing some tentative signs of picking up," they add.

(Stefano Rebaudo)



The pan-European index .STOXX has just hit fresh record highs as a wave of optimism has pushed investors to forget the old adage 'sell in May and go away'.

"Pulling all the macro pieces together, we see a constructive environment for risk assets, where we get reflation without runaway inflation," says Mark Baribeau, portfolio manager of the PGIM Jennison Global Equity Opportunities Fund.

The reflation narrative combined with the prolonged ‘lower-for-longer’ interest rate landscape are seen as a good mix for equities.

But T. Rowe Price warns that high valuations and frothiness in pockets of the market such as bitcoin, home prices and SPACs could spark "a more systemic sell-off".

It shifted to a modest underweight to equities compared to bonds and cash.

"Despite higher valuations, bouts of risk and pockets of froth in the market investors appear to have little concern," says Yoram Lustig, head of multi-asset solutions, EMEA, at T. Rowe Price.

(Joice Alves)



Emerging markets' (EM) equities have been disappointing recently, with China peaking out and delaying the vaccine campaign weighing on sentiment.

But in a while, it might be their turn.

“We think that there is a scope for better EM trading potentially entering 2H. We would look to use the current weakness to add to the asset class on a 12 months horizon,” JP Morgan analysts say in a research note.

“EMs are traditionally a beta play on global growth, but they have lagged the improvement in the DM so far,” as Covid cases continue to increase, they add.

Most EM countries are only expected to achieve developed markets levels of vaccination “towards the end of this year.”

China is not in excellent shape right now.

Some of the key stocks in MSCI China, Alibaba, and Tencent are down 20-40% from highs due to increased regulatory uncertainty, with their earnings projections also under pressure.

Furthermore, the policymakers are currently focused more on removing excess liquidity than providing fresh stimulus.

JP Morgan does not expect any severe slowdown of the economy, but “M1, PMIs, credit impulse, shipping rates, and others have all rolled over, which typically matters for forwarding equity returns.”

(Stefano Rebaudo)



Today it’s all about Friday’s U.S. weaker than expected job data, which pushes back the taper timing and boosts risk appetite across the board.

“Whichever way you look at it, anyone who thought that the Fed’s employment target might be in touching distance in the foreseeable future has had a dampener on Friday,” Commerzbank analysts say, recalling the maximum employment is part of the Fed mandate.

“With policy remaining supportive, we continue to see support for the reflation trade,” UBS analysts say.

They also suggest “picking companies with pricing power” as cost pressure for corporates, possible rising wage growth, and potential corporate tax increases are emerging.

But it’s not just that.

Commerzbank highlights three possible employment data scenarios, which could change the Fed attitude about tapering:

. Friday’s data were weak just because the creation of new jobs have merely been postponed, and the big boom will come in May or June;

. the sectors benefitting from the pandemic are beginning to suffer while the losers are not yet recovering;

. The recovery of the labour market might take much longer than expected.

“More erratic the recovery on the U.S. labour market, the longer the Fed will take to consider rate steps. And the longer it will allow inflation to overshoot,” Commerzbank says.

The chart shows the S&P future reaction to U.S. data on Friday.

(Stefano Rebaudo)



Europe's pan-European index has just hit fresh highs supported by miners as expectations for easy monetary policy and optimism about the reopening of economies boosted cyclical sectors.

The STOXX 600 .STOXX rose just a tad in early trade but it was enough to hit fresh record highs. It was last up 0.1%.

Europe's basic resources index .SXPP jumped to a fresh 10-year high, last up 2.4%, with shares in BHP BHPB.L and Rio Tinto RIO.L up more than 3%.

London blue chips .FTSE also rose despite a surge in the pound as PM Johnson is expected to announce additional easing from lockdowns.

In terms of single stocks, British bakery and fast-food chain Greggs GRG.L shares jumped more than 8% after the company raised its outlook. nL8N2MX14L

(Joice Alves)



An eventful weekend as a cyber attack forced the shutdown of much of the Colonial pipeline -- the source of half the U.S. East Coast's fuel supply. That's pushed up U.S. gasoline futures RBc1 2% while Brent crude futures are up almost 1%.

It raises the risk of gasoline shortages during the U.S. summer driving season but also of another surge in headline inflation, already seen on the rise in coming months.

Treasury yields are higher therefore, adding another two basis to a late-Friday rebound off two-month lows.

But with U.S. 10-year yields some 20 bps off recent 14-month highs, world stocks are rolling higher, hitting new record highs and European and U.S. futures indicating a robust session ahead.

Stocks are merely extending gains chalked up on Friday when a remarkably poor set of April jobs data allowed markets to push back Fed rate hike bets and sent the dollar to two-month lows. A perusal of the figures showed however, the huge miss maybe had more to do with hiring difficulties rather than jobs not being created.

In other news, pro-independence parties nabbed a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament, setting the stage for a tussle with the UK government over another independence referendum. The pound seems unfazed though, staying above $1.40; eyes possibly on the end of COVID-19 lockdowns, just a week away.

Also on the weekend, meme-inspired crypto Dogecoin lost a third of its value after Elon Musk, the billionaire Tesla chief called it a "hustle". He then proceeded to tweet that his SpaceX venture would be accepting Dogecoin as payment.

The main action though is on Ether which rose above $4000, hitting a record high for the third day straight.

Finally, earnings are winding down across the Atlantic but some 75 companies, including several banks, will report in Europe. Societe Generale leapt as much as 6.6% after it posted net 814 million-euro profit.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:

-New India coronavirus cases and deaths hold near record highs

- Earnings: British bakery chain Greggs raised its profit outlook after after a recovery in sales; Dignity reported a 35% jump in Q1 profit due as demand for funeral services rose

Euro zone Sentix index

Auctions: US 6-mth/3-mth bills

US earnings: Coty, Tyson Foods, Marriott, Occidental,

Europe earnings: Euronext, Centrica

(Sujata Rao)



Europeans stocks are seen on the rise mirroring Asian stocks, which rose amid speculation that interest rates will remain low due to receding inflationary pressure, while the pound shoots up after Boris Johnson emerged stronger from local elections. nL1N2MW0J1

Sterling GBP=D3 is at its highest in more than two months against the dollar after local elections, but worries about Scottish independence could curb sterling's gains. nL1N2MW04M

Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon told PM Johnson that another referendum on independence was inevitable after her party won a resounding election victory.

In the meantime, Sadiq Khan from Britain's opposition Labour Party was re-elected Mayor of London on Saturday, comfortably defeating Shaun Bailey from Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party.

Oil and gas prices jumped after a cyber attack on a U.S. pipeline operator unnerved markets.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday showed jobs growth unexpectedly slowed in April, which gave equities a lift. nL1N2MT2XD

(Joice Alves)