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EUR/USD Forecast: Bounced Just Modestly From A Critical Fibonacci Support Level

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1902 The EUR eased despite the broad dollar’s weakness amid vaccination pause. The US Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday its latest decision on monetary policy. EUR/USD bounced just modestly from a critical Fibonacci suppor...

· 03/16/2021 16:21

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1902

  • The EUR eased despite the broad dollar’s weakness amid vaccination pause.
  • The US Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday its latest decision on monetary policy.
  • EUR/USD bounced just modestly from a critical Fibonacci support level.

The EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday, despite a broadly weaker dollar. The shared currency came under selling pressure after the European Medicines Agency continues investigating the AstraZeneca’s vaccine possible side effects, making no decision on whether to resume its application. However, a conclusion will be released next Thursday, and authorities repeated that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks.

Germany published the ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment, which improved in March to 76.6, beating expectations. For the whole EU,  the index printed at 74, also better than anticipated.  In the US, Retail Sales were a big miss, contracting by 3% in February, although January reading was upwardly revised to 7.6% from 5.3%, partially offsetting the negative headline.   

This Wednesday, the EU will unveil February inflation figures, while the US will publish housing-related data. The main event of the day will be the US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy decision. US policymakers are expected to remain on hold. Chief Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that yields are not a factor when deciding whether or not to raise rates.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1900, up from a daily low of 1.1881. The pair keeps trading within Fibonacci levels, bouncing from near the 61.8% retracement of its November/January rally at 1.1885. In the near-term, the risk is skewed to the downside as the pair has extended its slide below a now mildly bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators keep lacking directional strength within negative levels.

Support levels: 1.1885 1.1840 1.1795

Resistance levels: 1.1930 1.1975 1.2020

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