惠譽調整日月光投控及日月光的展望為「穩定」，確認「BBB」評等
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-16 March 2021:惠譽評級已調整台灣委外封裝半導體測試 (OSAT) 業者日月光投資控股股份有限公司 (日月光投控) 及其全資子公司日月光半導體製造股份有限公司 (日月光) 的展望，由「負面」調升到「穩定」。我們也確認其「BBB」長期外幣發行人違約評等 (IDR) 及「A+(twn)」國家長期評等。完整評等⾏動列表請⾒本⽂⽂末。
「穩定」評等展望反映惠譽預期日月光投控的經營業務所得資金槓桿比例將在 2021 年至 2022 年改善為約 2.3 倍，低於可能會促成惠譽調降評等的 2.5 倍。惠譽預期消費性電子產品熱銷及半導體晶片短缺所帶動的封裝與測試服務強勁需求，將使日月光投控受惠。在家工作的趨勢以及電子裝置中半導體元件的增加，應可支持 2021 年的成長。惠譽相信這能帶來更高的 EBITDA 以及自由現金流 (FCF)，帶動更進一步的去槓桿化。
評等理由
OSAT 市場領先地位穩固：日月光投控的評等反映了其穩固的市場領先地位—營收佔全球前十大 OSAT 公司營收總額的 35%。與其他 OSAT 公司相比，日月光投控擁有多元化產品組合，能為指定客戶群體提供全套封裝、測試和系統級封裝及電子製造服務 (EMS)。其悠久的經營記錄及技術能力也是支撐其市場領先地位的基礎。
日月光投控的製造據點遍布世界各地，包括亞洲、歐洲及北美洲。整合新收購的 Asteelflash Group S.A. (主要營運據點為法國及德國) 後，也更加強化其業務狀況。此外，惠譽認為，日月光投控的整合式策略中期而言將使其贏得規模較小的委外封裝測試業者之市場佔有率。
產能短缺支撐成長：惠譽相信 2021 年 OSAT 產業的打線產能短缺將支撐日月光投控的績效。其與多數客戶簽訂長期固定價格及產量合約，以確保業務穩定。惠譽預期在 2021 年至 2023 年間，日月光投控的年度營收將在強勁需求及訂價能力帶動下，提升中高個位數百分比 (不包括 Asteelflash)。儘管受到美國出口禁令影響及 Covid-19 所造成的生產中斷，日月光投控的 2020 年營收及 EBITDA 分別提升 15% 和 17%。
利潤率成長：日月光投控的合併EBIT 利潤率預期可在 2021 年至 2023 年成長至 8%-9%，因其持續提高與 2018 年收購的矽品精密工業股份有限公司的協同效應，並在短期內有較高的訂價能力。該公司也透過提升工廠自動化來改善效率，進而提升盈利能力。然而，台幣對美元升值以及較低利潤率的 EMS 業務營收貢獻增加，可能會部分抵銷利潤率的改善。
週期性產業；資本密集本質：OSAT 產業具有高度週期性，且供需不均普遍，這可能會造成衰退期產能過剩及利用率較低的情形。在產業衰退期，垂直整合設備製造者可能會降低委外數量，而在公司內部進行測試活動，充分利用剩餘產能，此舉對於 OSAT 產業具有負面影響。
產業本身的資本密集本質 (平均資本支出/營收比為 10%-15%) 也造就產業的高週期性。但像日月光投控此類較大的 OSAT 業者，得益於自身多元化產品組合及堅實的技術能力，有能力實現較整體產業更快速的擴張。
客戶高度集中：日月光投控的客戶均屬高度集中，這在 OSAT 及半導體產業相當常見。2020 年，日月光投控在 OSAT 業務的前五大客戶佔其約 47% 的營收。然而，惠譽相信客戶集中風險仍屬可控制範圍內，因為日月光投控具高市場佔有率且產能可用於其他客戶的訂單，可從日月光投控 2020 年第四季度因美國禁令而損失一主要客戶，但仍快速反彈一事明顯得知。
槓桿承諾：我們預期日月光投控在 2021 年至 2023 年期間會產生 250 億至 290 億新台幣的股息前自由現金流(約 5% 利潤率)。日月光投控的公開淨債務與權益比目標為 60%-65% (2020 年為65%)。惠譽預期股利支付比率約為前一年度淨收入的 60%，且多餘的現金將用於去槓桿化或併購，同時將經營業務所得資金槓桿比例維持在 2.0-2.5 倍。
在合併報表基礎上授予評等：鑑於日月光投控和日月光之間的關聯性為「強」，惠譽根據其《母子公司評等關聯性標準》，在日月光投控集團的合併實體信用狀況基礎上授予評等。日月光投控全資持有日月光，擁有其董事會的控制權，日月光則為日月光投控提供公司間貸款，並向日月光投控派發股息。此外，日月光還為日月光投控集團貢獻了大部分營收和 EBITDA。
評等推導摘要
意法半導體公司 (意法半導體，BBB/穩定) 的業務風險狀況弱於日月光投控，因其暴露在半導體晶片需求波動的風險中，且在產業界的市場地位較弱。意法半導體是全球車用半導體產業部門的第五大供應商。意法半導體較弱的運營風險狀況，會被較低的預測經營業務所得資金約 1.0 倍的槓桿比例及淨現金頭寸所抵銷。
瑞薩電子股份有限公司 (瑞薩電子，BBB-/負向評等觀察) 業務風險狀況弱於日月光投控，因其在零散的車用半導體產業為第三大公司，市場地位較弱。儘管具備較高的自由現金流而有較強的去槓桿化能力，瑞薩電子的經營業務所得資金槓桿比例也較高，約為 3.0 倍。我們將瑞薩電子列入負向評等觀察，因其提出的戴樂格半導體收購案可能會使槓桿比例提高。
台灣大哥大股份有限公司 (台灣大哥大，AA(twn)/負面) 比日月光投控有更強的業務狀況，因其是按營收計的台灣第二大移動通訊運營商。台灣大哥大所處行業的周期性較日月光投控所在的行業為低，現金流也更加容易預測。其財務狀況亦較為穩健—經營業務所得資金槓桿比例處於約 2.0 倍的較低水平。
關鍵評等假設
惠譽在日月光投控評等案例的關鍵評等假設：
- 2021 年至 2023 年期間營收約增長 5%-8% (不包含來自 Asteelflash 的營收貢獻)
- EBIT 利潤率提升至 8%-9%
- 資本支出/營收比為 11%-12%
- 派息率約佔前一年度淨收入的 60%
評等敏感性
單獨或共同導致惠譽採取正面評等行動/上調評等的未來發展因素包括：
- 較強的市場地位，包括較大的市場佔有率或多元化程度較高；
- 去槓桿化的優先性高於股東回報或併購，使經營業務所得資金槓桿比例改善至持續低於 1.5 倍；然而，除非業務因素有大幅改善，否則惠譽不太可能考慮調升評等
單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面評等行動/下調評等的未來發展因素包括：
- 股息前自由現金流持續低於 200 億新台幣；
- 經營業務所得資金槓桿比例持續保持在 2.5 倍以上。
最佳/最糟情況評等情境
國際信用評等非金融企業發行人評等的”最佳情況”評等調升情境 (以評等上調衡量，定義為評等改變的第 99 百分位數) 為在三年的評等期間內調升三個級距；最糟情況評等調降情境 (以負向衡量，定義為評等轉換的第 99 百分位數) 為在三年內調降四個級距。 對於所有評等類別的最佳與最糟情境信用評等，其完整範圍涵蓋從「AAA」至「D」內的評等。最佳與最糟情境信用評等均根據歷史績效而定。如需深入瞭解產業特定最佳與最糟情境信用評等的判斷方法，請至：https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579
流動性
流動性充裕：截至 2020 年底，日月光投控的流動性充足，現金餘額為 520 億新台幣，並持有 2,750 億新台幣未動用的非承諾授信額度，足以覆蓋 460 億新台幣的短期債務。集團在本地銀行和國內債券市場擁有順暢的融資渠道，使其能以約 2% 的實際利率獲得銀行貸款或發行債券。
引用為關鍵評等驅動因素評等之客觀重要來源的出處
在下列適用準則中，說明了該分析所用資訊的主要來源。
環境、社會與公司治理(ESG)方面的考量因素
除非本節內容另有披露，ESG信用相關度評分最高為3分，表示ESG問題因其性質或受企業管理的方式而對信用的影響為中性或僅對受評企業的信用狀況產生極小影響。如需了解惠譽ESG相關度評分的更多信息，請訪問www.fitchratings.com/esg。
注意：本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問，請以英文版本為準。
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