The 2020 US Presidential election has acted as a Super Bowl for prediction markets.
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the US on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2021? Or Will Donald Trump formally concede the 2020 US election before Dec. 1, 2020? These are just some of the bets prediction markets have had, according to CoinDesk.
The 2020 US election has been a boon for decentralized prediction markets. They have done millions in volume with various election markets bettings. The platform's "Will Trump win the market?" bet has surpassed $8 million in volume, Yahoo! Finance reports.
Europe and Asian betting markets have also gained a lot of attention during the election. In the UK, a British participant put down about $1 million on Joe Biden's victory at the Betfair Exchange, the country’s largest betting site.
According to Reuters, bettors on Betfair gave Trump a 60 percent chance of winning the second term, up from 39 percent when polls opened on Tuesday, 3rd November.
Biden's chances declined from 61 percent from Tuesday to 40 percent on Wednesday, 4th November. However, as per Betfair, the projected result vindicated the betting markets.
A New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt put Biden at 68 cents to Trump’s 39 cents on November 2nd. But all the permutations changed as the counting progressed in various states in the country.
Before the election, Biden was the favored candidate in betting. He was considered to have a roughly 66 percent chance of winning. Yet, the odds for a Biden victory on the betting market were much lower than what pollsters had predicted.
The decentralized betting platforms like Polymarket, YieldWars, and Augur saw hastened trading volume growth leading to the presidential election, the cryptocurrency news website The Block has reported.
Polymarket has benefited from the US election, with its election-related markets receiving over $3.5 million in trading volume. Polymarket’s ‘Will Trump win the 2020 US presidential election?’ had over $2.8 million worth of bets placed, with each bet costing less than a dollar. YieldWars has attracted over $50,000 in bets.
While Augur has seen massive betting, reporting $8.6 million in total election volume and $4.75 million in open interest, a cryptocurrency publication Cointelegraph has noted.
During the voting week, close to $16 million worth of TRUMP tokens were traded on FTX whereas, BIDEN tokens pushed nearly $6 million. FTX’s TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE bettings also drove $10 million in combined volume.
The presidential election has attracted $1.02 billion in bets, making it the largest event of any kind. The 2016 US election saw a compound betting of close to $360 million, Press News Agency reports.