There are myriad potential sector-level outcomes that could result following Election Day. Broadly speaking, it's expected that a victory by former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden would be beneficial to some already high-flying sectors, including technology.
That's relevant for multiple reasons, not the least of which is the fact that technology is the largest sector weight in the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, there are other implications for exchange traded funds, including the geared Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TECL).
Why It's Important: Obviously, TECL is a geared ETF, a triple-leveraged one at that, meaning there's substantial risk in holding the fund from now through Election Day. However, electoral outcomes are among the events that increase the allure of leveraged ETFs as short-term trading instruments, meaning TECL could be worth a look immediately following Election Day.
“Joe Biden has vowed to get tough on big tech and tax breaks should he win the U.S. presidential race in November, but analysts and legal experts note current global uncertainties could hinder the Democratic challenger from shaking up Silicon Valley in the near term,” according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
That's good news because some Biden chatter, if it evolved beyond that point, could TECL's bearish cousin, the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TECS), in play.
“Biden has pledged to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, undoing some of the tax cuts implemented under the Trump administration,” according to S&P Global. “The former vice president also aims to set a minimum tax of 15% on companies' book income, or profits reported to shareholders, and to raise taxes on foreign earnings of U.S. companies located overseas — two policies that directly impact the U.S tech sector.”
What could make TECL a valid post-election trade is if Congress remains split and more details emerge from Biden, assuming he wins, on his tax plan.
“It is unclear how much Biden's proposed increase will impact tech firms, as the tech sector is notorious for having an effective tax rate that is significantly lower than the statutory rate, or the percentage set by federal law,” notes S&P Global. “Companies report their effective tax rate as a calculated figure that includes federal, state, local and foreign taxes, as well as various tax breaks.”