Germany Avoids Technical Recession, Eurozone GDP Projected To Rise 0.5% In 2020

Germany has narrowly avoided a recession, with the latest figures released Thursday showing the country’s economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter. Economists estimate that growth domestic product in the eurozone will grow by only 0.5% in 2020

Benzinga · 11/14/2019 22:54

Germany has narrowly avoided a recession, with the latest figures released Thursday showing the country’s economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Economists estimate that growth domestic product in the eurozone will grow by only 0.5% in 2020.

In Spain, the latest quarterly GDP growth figure is 0.4% quarter-over-quarter; in the Netherlands, 0.4%; in the U.K., 0.3%; in France, 0.3%; and in Italy, 0.1%. 

Breaking Down Euro Economic Numbers 

The second estimate of third-quarter eurozone GDP as a whole was unchanged from the first, and it showed the region's economy expanding by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, Andrew Kenningham, the chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a note

"Eurostat has not yet published an expenditure breakdown, so the focus today has been on the national GDP figures for Q3 released by Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal.” the economist said. 

The Dutch economy has continued to grow at a decent pace, posting a third successive quarterly expansion of 0.4%.

Portugal seems to be succumbing to the wider European downturn, as its growth rate slowed from an upwardly revised 0.6% in the second quarter to only half that pace in the third. 

Employment in the eurozone increased by only 0.1% in the third quarter, Kenningham said.

This, along with declining wage inflation, is likely to cause household spending growth to lose further momentum next year, contributing to a deceleration in domestic demand, he said. 

Braun: 'Uncertainty Is A Killer' 

On Nov. 11, the U.K. Office for National Statistics released data that showed the U.K. economy is growing at its slowest annual rate in almost a decade.

The U.K.'s year-over-year growth in the three-month period ended in September slowed from 1.3% to 1%, according to the ONS.

"We know uncertainty is a killer for the economy. U.K. growth was the slowest in a decade and that was in August. Germany has only narrowly avoided a recession, but it's not out of the woods just yet. Now the effects of uncertainty have become reality,” said Kerstin Braun, president of the U.K.-based Stenn Group.

Companies are dealing with the consequences of a global economic meltdown, Braun said: "margins are squeezed, output is down and balance sheets are weak."

FX Trader: Eurozone Metrics Have Stopped Sliding

The eurozone economy has been slowing, but economic indicators have stopped sliding, as seen in the slight beat in German GDP results, said Olivier Konzeoue, FX sales trader at Saxo Markets.

"More than data, headline risk is driving markets today, translating in a risk-off tone following Trump’s latest tweets."

U.S.-China trade talks are being closely monitored, as is the U.K. general election and its associated future implications for Brexit, he said. 

Price Action

The iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index (NYSE: EWU) was down 0.18% at the close Thursday, while the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) was down slightly. 

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