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Is Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) Undervalued Following Its Q2 Earnings And Q3 Growth Guidance?

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) is back in focus after its July 23 update, which combined second quarter 2026 results with fresh third quarter guidance and renewed attention on AI projects and U.S. manufacturing plans.

See our latest analysis for Nokia Oyj.

Nokia Oyj's recent earnings and Q3 guidance have come against a sharp reset in sentiment, with the share price down 27.48% over 30 days and 28.60% over 90 days, yet still showing a 46.63% year to date share price return and a 134.96% total shareholder return over one year, which points to earlier strong momentum that has recently cooled.

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The recent swing in Nokia Oyj's share price can look like a verdict on its Q2 earnings and AI plans, or simply a sharp reset in sentiment. The next step is to see what the current valuation actually reflects.

Most Popular Narrative: 46.6% Undervalued

The latest narrative for Nokia Oyj sets a fair value of €15.16 against a last close of €8.10, which frames the current pullback in a very different light.

Nokia delivered a strong second quarter, reporting revenue of €4.815 billion and earnings per share of €0.07, supported by growing demand for AI and cloud-related solutions. The company is also expanding its presence in the defense sector through AI-powered tools for 5G networks, creating additional opportunities to diversify revenue and strengthen long-term growth prospects.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is sitting behind that gap between price and fair value for Nokia Oyj? The narrative leans heavily on rising earnings power, richer margins and a future profit multiple that assumes those AI and cloud bets keep paying off. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions have been plugged in to reach €15.16.

Result: Fair Value of €15.16 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Nokia Oyj still faces risks if AI and defense spending slow, or if profit margins do not align with the upbeat assumptions behind that €15.16 fair value.

Find out about the key risks to this Nokia Oyj narrative.

Next Steps

Given this mix of optimism and concern around Nokia Oyj, it makes sense to act promptly, review the full risk and reward picture, and decide where you stand using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Nokia Oyj?

If you only stop at Nokia Oyj, you could miss other opportunities that fit your goals, so keep building your watchlist with targeted stock ideas.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.