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Nexstar Media Group (NXST): Has The Recent Cooldown Opened A Valuation Opportunity?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Nexstar Media Group (NXST) has been quietly slipping over the past few months, even as its longer term track record looks strong. That disconnect is exactly what makes the stock interesting now.

See our latest analysis for Nexstar Media Group.

At around $189.01, Nexstar’s share price has cooled off from earlier highs, with a softer 90 day share price return but a solid year to date gain and robust five year total shareholder return suggesting long term momentum is still intact, even as near term sentiment resets.

If Nexstar’s mix of steady cash flows and moderating momentum has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be worth seeing what else fits the bill through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Nexstar trading below analyst targets yet still boasting strong multi year returns, the key question now is whether investors are being offered a rare value entry point or whether the market has already priced in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.5% Undervalued

Compared with Nexstar’s last close at $189.01, the most closely followed narrative points to a materially higher fair value anchored in its earnings potential.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $693.6 million (and earnings per share of $25.7) by about September 2028, up from $606.0 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.1x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why modest revenue expectations still support a higher valuation? The narrative leans on rising margins, shrinking share count, and a future earnings multiple that challenges today’s cautious pricing.

Result: Fair Value of $231.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shrinking linear TV audiences, combined with Nexstar’s heavy reliance on volatile political ad cycles, could quickly erode the upside this valuation narrative implies.

Find out about the key risks to this Nexstar Media Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nexstar Media Group Narrative

If you would rather challenge these conclusions and dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nexstar Media Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.