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How A £400 Million UK Nuclear Submarine Deal At AtkinsRéalis Group (TSX:ATRL) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In early December 2025, Rolls-Royce Submarines Limited appointed AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., alongside Frazer-Nash and Assystem, to deliver nuclear propulsion and engineering capabilities under a framework agreement worth up to £400 million over five years, with an option to extend for two more years.
  • This Capability Assured Strategic Partnership embeds AtkinsRéalis deeper into the UK’s Defence Nuclear Enterprise and AUKUS-related submarine programs, broadening its role in high-complexity nuclear propulsion, safety assurance, and lifecycle engineering services for allied navies.
  • We’ll now examine how this multi-year UK submarines framework, anchored in nuclear propulsion and engineering services, may influence AtkinsRéalis’ investment narrative.

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AtkinsRéalis Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own AtkinsRéalis, you need to believe it can compound value through higher margin nuclear and complex engineering work, while managing project and acquisition risk. The new Rolls-Royce Submarines framework reinforces the near term nuclear growth story, but does not remove the key risks around lumpy nuclear revenues, potential project delays and the possibility that softer Engineering Services growth in the US and EMEA could pressure the earnings trajectory.

The December 2025 CASP award builds directly on the January 2025 appointment as Rolls-Royce Submarines’ joint fissile design partner in Derby. Together, these roles deepen AtkinsRéalis’ integration into the UK Defence Nuclear Enterprise and AUKUS programs, which sit at the center of the current nuclear growth catalyst, but also amplify the concentration risk if future nuclear program timing or scope were to change.

Yet investors should also weigh how increased dependence on large nuclear programs could affect results if...

Read the full narrative on AtkinsRéalis Group (it's free!)

AtkinsRéalis Group's narrative projects CA$12.8 billion revenue and CA$896.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of about CA$1.6 billion from CA$2.5 billion today.

Uncover how AtkinsRéalis Group's forecasts yield a CA$114.53 fair value, a 31% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

TSX:ATRL Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
TSX:ATRL Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for AtkinsRéalis span from CA$68.73 to CA$114.53, underlining how far apart individual views can be. When you set these side by side with the growing reliance on large, complex nuclear contracts, it becomes clear why many investors choose to compare several viewpoints before deciding how this story might influence future performance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on AtkinsRéalis Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 31% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.