The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shenwan Hongyuan Securities released a research report saying that in 2026, the US labor supply may continue to shrink, demand will gradually stabilize, and break-even employment will remain low. On the supply side, Trump's immigration policy is tight and difficult to relax. The goal is to repatriate one million illegal immigrants in 2026; on the demand side, government layoffs have come to an end, and tariffs have impacted or weakened employment, but the “replacement effect” of AI on employment still exists. The labor market may present a “low growth balance.”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shenwan Hongyuan Securities released a research report saying that in 2026, the US labor supply may continue to shrink, demand will gradually stabilize, and break-even employment will remain low. On the supply side, Trump's immigration policy is tight and difficult to relax. The goal is to repatriate one million illegal immigrants in 2026; on the demand side, government layoffs have come to an end, and tariffs have impacted or weakened employment, but the “replacement effect” of AI on employment still exists. The labor market may present a “low growth balance.”