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Assessing ASML (NasdaqGS:ASML)’s Valuation After Its Strong Multi‑Month Share Price Rally

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) has quietly added to its strong year, with the stock up about 7% over the past month and more than 40% in the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

That recent strength builds on a powerful trend, with a 30 day share price return of around 8 percent feeding into a roughly 58 percent year to date share price gain and a near 57 percent one year total shareholder return, signalling investors are increasingly pricing in ASML Holding's growth runway rather than retreating from semiconductor cyclicality.

If ASML Holding’s surge has you thinking about what else is working in the chip space, this could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks.

Yet even after a near vertical run, ASML trades only slightly below consensus targets, but at a steep premium to traditional valuation metrics. This raises the key question: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.7% Overvalued

According to Investingwilly, the narrative fair value of $1,002.53 sits below ASML Holding’s last close, framing today’s price as ahead of fundamentals.

ASML delivered a solid quarter, with:

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why strong margins, robust bookings, and optimistic long term demand all still point to a stretched valuation multiple? The narrative’s cash flow and growth assumptions hide the real engine behind that price gap. Curious which profitability trend does the heavy lifting in this model, and how far out the market is looking?

Result: Fair Value of $1002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing 2026 growth guidance and tightening export controls to China could still derail the long term thesis that is driving today’s premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If this view does not fully align with your own or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.