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Why Box (BOX) Is Up 7.2% After AI-Driven Revenue Beat But Softer Profit Guidance – And What's Next

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • In early December 2025, Box reported third-quarter revenue of US$301.11 million, up from US$275.91 million a year earlier, while net income dipped slightly to US$12.07 million and full-year guidance pointed to more modest profitability due in part to non-cash deferred tax expenses.
  • The company also highlighted robust adoption of its AI-powered Intelligent Content Management platform and an 18% increase in remaining performance obligations, underscoring a growing base of contracted future revenue even as near-term earnings guidance came in softer than many investors expected.
  • We’ll now examine how Box’s stronger AI-driven revenue momentum but softer profit outlook could influence the longer-term investment narrative for the company.

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Box Investment Narrative Recap

To own Box, you need to believe its AI-powered Intelligent Content Management platform can stay relevant even as hyperscalers push tightly integrated alternatives. The latest results support the revenue side of that thesis through 9% growth and an 18% RPO increase, but softer GAAP profit guidance and non-cash tax headwinds slightly weaken the near term margin and earnings catalyst without materially changing the central risk of customers consolidating onto broader suites.

Within the update, Box’s full year FY2026 outlook of roughly US$1.175 billion in revenue and a 7% GAAP operating margin matters most, because it frames how quickly AI-driven upsell and workflow automation can translate into durable profitability. For investors watching whether adoption of Box AI is enough to counter pricing pressure and suite consolidation, this guidance helps anchor expectations for how much operating leverage the business is currently prepared to show.

Yet even with Box’s AI traction and growing contracted revenue, investors should still be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Box (it's free!)

Box’s narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $191.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 10.3% yearly revenue growth and a modest $3.7 million earnings increase from $187.3 million today.

Uncover how Box's forecasts yield a $36.25 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

BOX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
BOX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Six members of the Simply Wall St Community value Box between US$26 and about US$48 per share, reflecting very different expectations for upside. Before the latest results, many were focused on AI driven workflow adoption and RPO growth as key long term supports for Box’s revenue resilience, which makes it worth comparing several of these viewpoints directly.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Box - why the stock might be worth as much as 51% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Box Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Box research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Box research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Box's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.